Originally posted by @Lesley Resnick:
We may slow a bit, but there is no catastrophic event on the horizon. No one ever knows what is going to happen and if they tell you they know, they are selling you something. it is hard enough to look around and know what is happening right now. If you look back to before the election, all the news outlets were predicting a recession. It is still coming?
Granted, if we get into a full-scale trade war with China, go to war with Mexico, leave the government closed for the next 6 months, then all bets are off.
Hoping for a recession so you can save a few bucks on a property is short-sighted. There is an assumption that all will remain the same except the price of the property you want to buy will just drop. This is not a zero-sum game. For you to get a deal at 75% off someone needs to lose and lose badly. The first thing to go in a crisis is liquidity. If you have Scrudge Mc Duck piles of cash and do not need to depend on your business or job to pay your bills or credit to make deals... If you need your tenants to pay rent to cover the mortgage, then you could be the one selling off the property at 75% off.
My point is, follow solid practices and buy good deals. Use leverage as a tool, not a crutch. A reputation and experience are going to be important when and if the next crisis comes. Real estate does not happen in a vacuum.
I am a net buyer (i buy more than I sell) and will be for the foreseeable future.
Great advise Lesley. I agree that the "bold" and uneducated investors could potentially set themselves up for failure by rushing in to gobble up discounted properties during the recession fire sale. As you said real estate certainly does not happen in a vacuum. Without first educating yourself on basic investment principles, as Mr. Brazil stated, you are doomed to repeat the mistakes of those who failed before you.
