@Chance Housos
Thanks for your feedback. I can understand what you're saying.
The market dropping is a possibility and probably the best counter-argument I've heard so far. Like I said, it will take a knowledgeable investor to see the merit of the deal and weigh the risks with his expertise. In my opinion, this person will pay off the loan before the market drops. The investor is welcome to meet him in person and review his current house-deal which was also seller-financed. he has made every payment. You will see his financials as much as you like--you will see that he owns several businesses and makes substantial income with substantial savings.
Do you expect supply to meet demand in DFW within 1 year? How much could it really drop? I would say the market is inflated at most by 15%. Well you're getting 10% down from the start plus his payments made up until the drop. If he leaves, sell the house again, albeit for less, and collect a new down payment. I agree, that is probably the worst case. I think that is much worse risk than default. Honestly, default is completely mitigated as I see it.
The return of $88k and $1,100 x12 months is 15%. Now take the immediate down payment that you get of 49k. That is 34% return after one year. So I'm not sure what calculation you were doing. This is with no land lording! No repairs. No replacing a tenant after one year therefore replacing carpet and paint and spending every dime of the cash flow you made all year--effectively making ZERO cash flow.
Honestly. You guys seem very experienced. But all you see is the down sides. The upsides are too numerous too mention. I realize it is your job to look at the down sides, the risk, the worst cases. But you can't ONLY look at the bad. Your job is more accurately, to WEIGH the bad AND the good. If you only look at the bad of any deal, you would never do any deal ever. You wouldn't even leave your house because you could be struck dead.
Another example of seeing only the bad--my commission. If you only look at what I'm taking then it sounds like a lot. But if you look at the good, you would see an $1,100 cash flow from a SFR. Most rental investors hope for what...$300 per door? This happens in wholesale deals as well--investors are willing to pay 10k in a wholesale fee because 20k can still be made. I just did that exact wholesale, last week. He effectively paid me 1/3 of the profit.
I think I see what is happening. I think the entire problem in your eyes is the expense of the deal. If this exact deal was for a 150k house, you would probably love it. I might even be able to charge 10% on top, like you said Chance. This only difference in my deal is that the down payment is higher, and the 10% on top isn't there. But guess what? If the 10% on top was there, I would take it. That is how those businesses work. The engineer of the deal takes the down payment on top, and then sells the note to an investor who wants cash flow. All I'm doing is taking 1/3 of the cash flow instead which still leaves $1,100 per month--a return of 34%! With no land lording! No property taxes. No insurance.
If this was a 150k house, the payment received would be proportionally smaller, and therefore the cash flow would be smaller. Let's calculate and find out: The buyer pays 10% on top which goes to me. That leaves 150k at 9.9% for 30 years for the buyer. That is a payment of $1,305. And you make a 20% down payment of $30k and finance 120k at 6.5% for 30 years. That is a payment of $1,044. That is a cash flow of $261. That is a return of 10%. Let's say you got a 5% loan. That is a payment of only $644. Much better. So now you're cash-flowing $661. That is a return of 26%.
That is a return that is LESS than proportionally smaller. If it was proportional, then the percentages would still be the same.
Please read my post carefully and check the math if you want. I spent some time on this post so please absorb it. At the very least, I am learning how to present these kinds of deals to investors. Apparently, I am doing it all wrong. Of course, there is only two of you. The rest are running like mice thanks to Bill's advice.
Maybe people just aren't ready for this. They would rather get 26% with 150k houses. Which are just as likely to drop in a market drop. And MORE likely to see a defaulter because the down payment from the buyer is so much less. But what do I know.