Weighing in as a parent of a 2020 grad and a rising sophomore. Both in Mid-Atlantic area, one mid-sized state flagship in a college town, the other a smallish liberal arts school in a major city.
First, I get so tired of reading how a college education is a waste of time and money. Certainly, it can be for those who only want to party and get a useless degree and lousy grades. But my grad has a computer engineering/science degree, and is fully launched with an excellent job and a small student loan. I have no loans for him and he is living with friends in a large city, paying all of his own bills. The sophomore is majoring in comp sci/chem (yes, you can get a useful degree at a liberal arts college!) and I anticipate the same outcome in three years. Years of savings through up markets and down combined with their hard work in high school that earned big scholarships enabled this outcome. No McMansions or luxury cars. It is possible to go to an expensive school and not come out with huge debts.
I don't see the elite schools in a hurry to water down their brands. Their endowments are enormous, they turn away multiple fully-qualified students for every one that they accept, and parents who can afford it will continue to write checks whatever the cost. Maybe there will be an uptick in gap years for the next year or two, but there is a waiting-list candidate to fill every one of those seats. Schools that are lower-tier are going to be the ones that will need to think about their model and how to keep the revenue flowing.
As for online learning - I can say for sure that neither of my kids them enjoyed their online learning experience this spring and would not be interested in obtaining a four-year online degree sitting in their bedroom at home. My older son lived in his off-campus house after the school shut down, so he could at least see a few friends and continue to live independently. My younger son had to come home and has spent months seeing almost no one but his father and I. He has taken two online classes this summer to get ahead and does not enjoy it. Given the choice to take a year off or continue in an environment with masks and limited interaction, he is returning to school. We already have a plan for him to move into off-campus housing if the dorms close again so at least he has the independent living aspect of this year.
Regarding the future of college housing - I follow the FB parents groups for both schools. When everyone was sent home, the state school parents were outraged that they weren't going to get rent forgiveness, and the on-campus students who got refunds were considered the lucky ones. Fast-forward four months and the tide has turned. Many students are going to live in their on-campus housing whether classes are in-person or online. Some parents are actively seeking off-campus housing instead of dorm housing. Because of course, college is more than just classes. It's social, it's clubs, it's learning how to live independently. It's not four years of sitting in your bedroom at your parent's house. We know students who are looking at long-term AirBnB rentals since their dorms will be closed for at least the fall semester.
So I don't have a vote from the options available. I don't think it's all doom and gloom, but I also don't think it's all sunshine and roses. The under-endowed schools that participated in the nuclear arms races of the 90's and 00's with lazy rivers and luxury rentals may be paying the piper soon due to the smaller Gen-Y population, skyrocketing prices and the effects of COVID. Investors there could get hammered if schools close. But IMO, upper-tier schools are not going away. As in all real estate... location, location, location.
