All Forum Posts by: Tom Kastorff

@Phillip Dwyer - fair, and yes we've discussed similar topic / price points upthread. That's why I am always curious when statements are made about market movement or pricing, what price point does that marry to? That's the only reason I am asking for clarity on your last post, just to compare notes. Not to be critical at all. Yes I am eyeballing 1M+ end, which as you noted, is at 11% closure rate and dropping. Your numbers - 42 against 542 on market - is even lower ~7.75% closure rate. Bad time to be selling, good time to be buying at that range. Would love to grab a deal in Anthem/GVR if everything wasn't 10-20 year old dated Italian bougie marble! :)

@Jay Hinrichs ... text her "how's it going with the Reverence seller" and see what she says .. :)

Jay, I am one of her buyers :) plenty of inventory sitting on the higher-end LV market, many with 100+ DOM, I just happened to run into the worst seller of my RE career. But Miss Kahli has been great! Made a few trips out to see tons of properties. Hoping the next one is to close escrow... 

I will say here in Socal the higher end market is such -low- inventory (counter to LV) that is is a good time to sell here. Tons of buyers unaffected by 'rona, and most sellers are sitting on the sidelines, at least in my coastal area. 

Phil, I see you are in Henderson. I have been watching props there and Summerlin very closely. What price range are you referring to with your comments? Curious. I am seeing tons of supply, but on the higher end. Every day my Zillow alert is ringing. Prices not going up. Most of what I have seen in person or following is stagnating, dropping a bit, or going contingent / off market (pulled unsold). But I assume you are talking $250-500k range? 

Per my post above, I have not seen -too- much movement yet at these price points, I am looking specifically $1M+. Lot of inventory has come online, but not too many big price drops despite the economic / covid situation. Many props that have been sitting 1, 2, 12 years have barely taken price cuts. Either folks are overly optimistic, blind to the market, can hold forever, or just bullish on high end LV RE staying firm and recovering despite everything going on. I've been a bit surprised. Not to say you can't take lowball/price reduction offer swings, but in terms of "are people dropping their prices" I am not seeing much. I don't have much eyeball data on the $700k+ market. 

Thus I agree - I think it will take some time to shake out at the higher end. My guess is these folks are not those losing their jobs, which are likely in the $250-500k market segment. Sure you may have some club / restaurant / casino boss ballers taking hits and trying to sell, but I imagine that is a much smaller segment of the market vs. the executives that have felt no affects of the downturn. Any senior exec that can work remote and bought in Summerlin/Henderson in the last 5 years probably felt nothing the last 100 days, and even if he wants to sell, can afford to hold his numbers. You might have to wait till wave 2 hits, forbearance ends, more casinos closing, whatever else it might take to see price drops hit. Find the Lebo Group YT vids, some helpful data in there.

I have optimism as a buyer, to live in. Lot of good deals out there on higher end homes. 

What is your angle as an investor? Homes are still moving at a brisk pace at the lower end ($250k and $500k). Look up the Lebo Group on Youtube, he does a very nice simple monthly update video on the Vegas market, his latest one from last week had a handy chart showing June homes under contract by %. Still nearly 50% of homes under contract at the under $250k marker, while it falls down to 11%/15% in the over 1M buckets. Still competitive at lower price points, good time to be a buyer at the higher price points. 

Sin City as an economic engine still has a long way to go though, per the recent news articles. It cannot really get cooking until the convention scene can reload, as Guy has pointed out plenty. I am in tech, and this will be the first year I haven't gone to vegas for a convention in more than ten years. Strange times. 

When rent for a 2b/2ba apt in the SFBA is $4500/mo, it is not hard to save money literally anywhere else, especially the very low cost cities he ripped off. All of those are at least half the cost, although he must have found really good airbnb monthly deals. Sweden is the only expensive country, but even then very much worth the cost, lovely place. Go to Copenhagen!!!

IMHO, extremely doubtful that any large in-person conferences happen anywhere in the US in 2020. I am surprised BiggerPockets has yet to come out with any directive on their plans or status. Major global conference mega-locations like Vegas have already announced no conferences rest of year. 

Agree. Need to see UI benefits stop overpaying people, forbearance extensions stop, eviction blocks lift, foreclosures hit, to really see how markets are affected. Half your neighbors could be sleeping on eggshells for all you know. I know a couple neighbors that have gotten really close to losing their businesses or homes, that surprised me (ie not young people, folks I expected to have safety nets in place). 

As everyone else has mentioned, this is often hyper-local. Yes SD hasn't seen much movement yet, mostly because inventory is extremely low. I live in a decent higher-end fast-moving property neighborhood and inventory is low, 7 fig props are mostly sitting or dropping (and some have just gone off market), and there are not many lower-priced homes that typically move quick. Stagnation / holding pattern. 

Las Vegas certainly has a whole different feedback loop. A third of their workforce is in deep trouble. DOM is mounting, properties are coming online daily. 

Vacation rental towns are also hurting badly (think just in CA - big bear, mammoth, palm springs examples)- thousands of Airbnb owners have been low-no revenue for nearly 90 days now due to CA state/governor mandated SIP and lockdowns. The bottom is not even close in these markets. I've been eyeballing these towns for possible STR props for a while, and wouldn't even start to throw lowball offers yet, inventory is high, DOM high, prices will fall hard. Lot of blood in the water yet to come.

A lot depends where you live and/or where you want to invest. 

Welcome Sabrina. That is a mind blowing amount of student loan debt - about the only career I can think of that would get close to that (wife used to do debt consolidation sales, has a lot of amazing stories) is a doctor / physician? Hoping your career earnings are now so incredible it was all worth it!

I would search for @Dan Heuschele (won't let me tag the right guy) posts or let's see if he chimes in. He usually posts a well-written template for local investing that basically says = nearly impossible, in the short term, to cash flow in SD. So if that is your immediate goal, SoCal is a tough place to accomplish that out of the gate. We'd need to know a lot more about your goals, budget, location, type of investing, to answer better. But for cash flow you typically need to invest OOS or out of town. 

In terms of how to find a good deal using the calculators, every week Brandon Turner hosts free webinars, and usually walks you through a sample investment using the calc and shows you the best way to fill it out and tune the numbers, and what he usually considers "a good deal" from his perspective. He typically gives a code at the end for like 20% off the Pro membership, which is well worth it. Once you have that, you have unlimited access to the calculators, but also all older webinars and material that can help learn the tools and tricks. They give away a lot of good free stuff to comb through. A lot of the books are also like half off for COVID, I picked up some of the tax strategy ones for like 20 bucks. 

Good luck!

@Dan Heuschele

My guess is there will be no BP Conf in Orleans this fall, I am quite amazed it hasn't been canceled yet. Don't think they will be shoving 500-1500 people into a big ballroom anytime soon, sorry folks. Vegas is the global barometer of that, if anyone is incentivized to get conferences going, it is the city that often hosts 50000 business people at a time across all their hotels. Most hotels won't even reopen this year, nevertheless their conference centers, pools, clubs, etc. 

Thus trainings/conf in SD won't be happening much either. Tons of resources here, just add San Diego as a keyword and you'll see tons of posts, industry people, locals, meetups, etc. You can find and learn a ton on biggerpockets as others have mentioned above me. Add some Brandon Turner free webinars, some BP books, etc. and build a network. 

You also say "look into" but don't explain what your angle is? Investor? Agent? Lender? Buyer? Seller? SFH? MF? Hard Money? There are 1000 ways to work in this business, add some specifics so people can offer you specific answers.