All Forum Posts by: Tim G.

Originally posted by @Anand S.:

Another one. Down almost $20k for what was looking like a good month.

I'm not debating the merits of the virus, just if others are being impacted. Fortunately or Unfortunately it looks like it's just me.

Sorry to see this is having such an impact to your business, I respect your openness. Often here on BP folks post only about their wins, so I don't believe you are alone. Its that others are not sharing their struggles as openly and we're 2-4 weeks from feeling serious economic pain. 

Instead of downplaying this with anecdotal opinions without any sources and promoting conspiracy theories I challenge people to tell me their predictions of what happens next. If you have such an expert understanding of this pandemic, enlighten us. Please. 

Here's how I see this playing out, hot spot states will become places no one wants to go and they will suffer greater economic impact than states with stricter rules and opening processes. While some states are doing a great job and should continue to open and monitor. Their worlds could come crashing down from visitors coming in and bringing the virus if preventative measures like mask requirements and limitations on group activities aren't in place.

Next up will be more mandatory mask laws and back tracking of openings as states that ignored science scramble to try and contain a virus that is setting new records for the number of reported cases.

June 24th highest number of US recorded cases yet

Florida setting a new record 8942 new cases. 

We will likely see more areas trying to ban visitors from high risk areas, since that's legally hard to enforce its possible vacation rental bans will take place. Hurting vacation rental property owners in areas where the virus numbers are good but need to be protected. 

Hot spot states will see more cancellations, restrictions on movement and businesses closures/limitations. We will see companies making the decision to close, enforce rules and restrictions in states where leadership isn't. A hard financial decision, not to be taken lightly. 

The next month we will see record deaths in hot spot states and likely spread to top performing states from out of towners coming to get away from the virus at home. 

Our situation will be drastically worse in 2 to 3 weeks with new record numbers for deaths for the nation.

I imagine the stock market takes a hammering, its showing signs this week that the party is over. Now the data is showing re-opening is not working well in many areas. Wall St. won't be able to ignore the fact the US isn't handling things well. 

Buckle up. 

This forum was much more fun before the conspiracy theories. Discussion isn't possible or enjoyable. 

 COVID is very much location dependent. Different testing, different population densities, different mitigation approaches. My state never shut down and we removed the last city restrictions over a month ago. People here are taking common sense precautions. The ones who are not, don't care what the government tells them to do. 

I am not trying to argue with you, but there has definitely been a major increase in testing every month. Positive cases have stayed pretty consistent. In March (in my state) you couldn't get a COVID test, unless you where admitted to the hospital. This month alone my state tested every single nursing home patient and employee. Thousands tested and 30 asymptomatic people found.

Look at the numbers below from John Hopkins University. In March the USA didn't even average 100K tests a day. In June the average is over 450K a day. 

We need to monitor the virus and keep common sense mitigation in place, but the states that insist on keeping their businesses closed are unnecessarily wrecking peoples lives. The eviction bans through the end of the year - it is just wrong. I can't sit here and say it is all necessary.

All I am saying is we need to acknowledge what we got right and what we got wrong, then be willing to adjust our approach as new data comes in. Over reaction or under reaction is not good. We probably agree more than we disagree on this. Maybe my wording came off too dismissive of the whole thing. It is a big threat, but realistically it will be around another year at least or it may never even go away. We need a way to exist with it. 

@Joe is spot on. We've only now gotten to large scale testing, so naturally more people are going to test positive. When I took statistics, the joke was "There are lies, damn lies and statistics".  

There is Only One True Indicator of how Covid is trending and that is hospital bed usage. 

Hospital admissions for Covid are way down. Entire emergency hospital setups were never used and have been dismantled. All of the "protesters" and rioters and large gatherings caused no uptick in hospital admissions. It shows us that it is all a sham.

You've elected to not include any statistics in your post, so I must assume it falls into one of the two other categories you've listed. 

Seven states; Arizona, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas reported their highest patient admissions so far. There are hospitals in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas that are at capacity. Sources linked below. 

Texas Hospitalizations hit new peak 12th day in a row.

 Seven states report highest coronavirus hospitalizations since pandemic began

Arizona Covid-19 hospitalizations hit new high

Five states hit record new highs for Covid-19 hospitalizations, nine record record seven day averages

I invest heavily in both Arizona and Texas and I track things like this. Here is the rest of the story you aren't telling. You probably should actually read the sources you post. I'll post it from your source to save you the effort:

"Arizona reported another 79 deaths from COVID-19 on Wednesday, with 1,795 new cases, a drop from Tuesday's 3,591 reported cases.

The state also reached a new high for hospitalizations Tuesday, according to the update provided by the Arizona Department of Health Services Wednesday morning.

The 79 deaths, while included in Wednesday's report, did not all occur in the past day. According to the health department, 53 of those deaths were from "death certificate matching" for deaths that occurred previously"

Etc, etc, etc, Yawn!

I must be confused, we were talking about hospitalizations which you said are going down. But now you're referencing information saying they're going up. So... which is it? 

 COVID is very much location dependent. Different testing, different population densities, different mitigation approaches. My state never shut down and we removed the last city restrictions over a month ago. People here are taking common sense precautions. The ones who are not, don't care what the government tells them to do. 

I am not trying to argue with you, but there has definitely been a major increase in testing every month. Positive cases have stayed pretty consistent. In March (in my state) you couldn't get a COVID test, unless you where admitted to the hospital. This month alone my state tested every single nursing home patient and employee. Thousands tested and 30 asymptomatic people found.

Look at the numbers below from John Hopkins University. In March the USA didn't even average 100K tests a day. In June the average is over 450K a day. 

We need to monitor the virus and keep common sense mitigation in place, but the states that insist on keeping their businesses closed are unnecessarily wrecking peoples lives. The eviction bans through the end of the year - it is just wrong. I can't sit here and say it is all necessary.

All I am saying is we need to acknowledge what we got right and what we got wrong, then be willing to adjust our approach as new data comes in. Over reaction or under reaction is not good. We probably agree more than we disagree on this. Maybe my wording came off too dismissive of the whole thing. It is a big threat, but realistically it will be around another year at least or it may never even go away. We need a way to exist with it. 

@Joe is spot on. We've only now gotten to large scale testing, so naturally more people are going to test positive. When I took statistics, the joke was "There are lies, damn lies and statistics".  

There is Only One True Indicator of how Covid is trending and that is hospital bed usage. 

Hospital admissions for Covid are way down. Entire emergency hospital setups were never used and have been dismantled. All of the "protesters" and rioters and large gatherings caused no uptick in hospital admissions. It shows us that it is all a sham.

You've elected to not include any statistics in your post, so I must assume it falls into one of the two other categories you've listed. 

Seven states; Arizona, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and Texas reported their highest patient admissions so far. There are hospitals in Arizona, California, Florida and Texas that are at capacity. Sources linked below. 

Texas Hospitalizations hit new peak 12th day in a row.

 Seven states report highest coronavirus hospitalizations since pandemic began

Arizona Covid-19 hospitalizations hit new high

Five states hit record new highs for Covid-19 hospitalizations, nine record record seven day averages

Like many here have said, this is the first wave. I do wonder if counties will restrict vacation rentals should they have fears of infected visitors (Arizona to Southern California) etc... The hot spots are likely to become economically impacted by no one wanting to visit. 

These are strange times, new cases are rising tremendously fast. So we should see a wave of deaths in the following weeks. Not that it should come as a surprise. 

Our businesses and most could likely operate just fine like many other parts of the world if we took this more seriously and listened to the experts. Wear a mask folks. Its good for business. 

Everyone here is right, that's a tire kicker. Make your offer, move on, follow up. 

New wholesalers have a bad habit of trying to force a lead into being a deal. A round peg isn't gonna fit in a square hole, make the offer and move on. 

Sorry you've had such headaches.... To help prevent this happening in the future, can I ask what about the forums gave you a good feeling about dealing with loftium? Were they an advertiser on here?

In 13' I bought a four unit building, all 2/1's with a 203k. All in around $360k, I did the streamlined version. So my repairs were only cosmetic, my value add was solving the issues at the property and filling vacancies.

I refi'd it two years later to get rid of PMI (monthly insurance on your loan since you're only putting 3.5% down) Its doubled in value and earns really well, what made it a great deal is the combination of the awesome financing to let a new guy get started and an awesome property.

Remember it won't turn a bad deal into a good deal if the property just sucks. Match it with a good place that fits your needs and it can be a new investor home run. The process was fun, but I wouldn't want to try it with a complicated property. You want to be in and out and off the banks radar and everyone paid asap with these things. Then use your own cash to get wild once they are gone.

I've also used this type of loan on a SFR conventional where I put 20% and got $60k to renovate my personal home. But I HAD to get permits etc, which was ok for me but again.. you're dealing with a third party who wants all the details. Its kinda annoying but worth it in the right scenario.

Both were fun, stressful and complicated processes but not that bad. Just a new aspect of finance and construction. 

When did it become only vendors answering questions here. 

I barely come here for real estate advice at this point, let alone guidance on how to properly handle the first global pandemic of our lifetimes. 

It would be wise to think of the word grace. People need it right now.

It's important to give grace to those around us. I am not a religious person. Grace is about understanding everyone is in some form of crisis right now. So their perspective is different and there's a good chance it's coming from a place of fear. Of losing money, security and safety. 

Things have to be pretty grim financially for someone to be saying, you know what. My health, my friends, family, the community, is not as important as this problem I am facing. So while I don't agree, I want to be sympathetic and understanding that this is a horrible experience and I can understand why they are looking for options to end this pain.