Hi @Danielle Wolter -
I see this same situation in the SF Bay Area all the time ... here's the process that I would use to help think through this:
Since I don't know your exact situation, I'll make up some numbers that may or may not be close to what you're dealing with ... my guess, though, is that they'll be in the ballpark:
- let's say you bought for $500k ... the PI on your loan might be around $2100/mo
- condo in downtown SD ... you might have a $450/mo HOA fee
- prop tax ... in the range of $525/mo
- insurance ... maybe another $75/mo
- sub total: $3150/mo (and I'm excluding repairs, prop mgmt, etc)
- potential rent: $2400/mo
- cash flow: -$750/mo ... -$9k/yr
You're looking for appreciation, so let's say you hold the property for the next 10 years ... you could be $90k in the hole from negative cash flow at that point (I know that's unrealistic, but this is just an example :). If that were to happen, you'd need your property to appreciate 18% just to break even. While SD might experience massive appreciation, your wallet won't see it.
Now, compare that to another growth market like the Raleigh metro ... that same original $500k can be split into 2 townhouses that will kick off $400-500/mo in positive cash flow ... use a portion of the $90k that you were going to sink into the negative SD condo and pick up a third unit. Your total property value goes from $500k in SD to $750k in Raleigh - plus, you're looking at $600-750/mo in positive cashflow. Even if Raleigh appreciates at half the rate as SD, your total return is going to still be superior.
The kicker to this example ... you're making good money in CA - you're paying a minimum of 9.3% in state income tax, maybe more ... in NC, you'll have a flat income tax at 5.25%. So, even if the the SD property was generating the exact same positive cash flow as the Raleigh one, you'd be seeing 4.05% less of it.
Hope this helps...