Alex Corvin My 2 cents ...
Assumptions:
- Buy at $125k with 25% down at < 4% interest rate,
- Since current tenant is on a month to month lease, inform tenant rent will go up to market in 3 months or so. This will likely cause them to move out, but with the strong market you should be able to replace with a market rate tenant around $1,100/mo.
- Minimal turn expenses (paint, carpet, other light cosmetics) do not exceed $3k.
- Manage the property yourself.
- Initial reserves for CapEx and repair items of $10k.
With those assumptions, you should be cash flow positive. As stated before, any bets on appreciation are speculation.
I would encourage you to develop a set of guidelines, or metrics, by which you analyze deals. If a deal does not meet your guidelines then you absolutely must pass and move on to sourcing and analyzing the next deal.
Furthermore, you can make an offer on a deal that will force the metrics into your established guidelines. It is essentially free to make an offer and the worst a seller can say is no. You will at least have the peace of mind that you tried, it did not meet your guidelines, and you will be free to focus on finding deals that work for you.
Best of luck to you and let the group here know how it turns out for you.
-Tyler