Quote from @Michael Kotylo:
I made an offer this weekend on a property that was priced too high to make a profit. Listed for 320k, with rental comps around $2500/mo, which would cashflow negatively ~$500/mo, no thanks! ARV was 400k on this and it was a 1972 time capsule. I offered $280k and everyone acted like I was stealing out of the collection plate at church. I didn't care, I'm not trying to please the world, I'm making a financial decision that will either reward or hinder me.
My offer would have negatively cashflowed -$1/mo, however the appreciation and equity would have made up for no cashflow so I was comfortable at my offer price. I don't see how anyone was going to make money on this one, so it must have been owner occupants making emotional decisions.
Is anyone experiencing something similar?
I somewhat get what you're saying, but in this market you won't be buying much.
You really have to project forward a little. This specific deal is probably still a pass, maybe not. Would rental comps be higher if you renovated the units? Was that projection based on as is condition?
It's great to say I offered what it was worth as it stands now, but a lot of the time you're going to be passing on opportunities that would be a great deal in 5/10 years with that mentality. IMO too many people listen to podcasts/read articles that focus way too much on the numbers at purchase. Real estate is still a get rich really slowly game. Usually also don't factor in the wealth creation parts of it too when they use most calculators. For instance, debt paydown (by the tenant) increases your equity. In 5/10 years you pull out that equity with a tax free refinance. People say appreciation is speculation, and value appreciation can be, but rent appreciation? Values cycle, swing, etc. Rents generally, just go up. Sometimes slowly, sometimes not at all, but they hardly ever go down. Over the past 100 years there's very few examples of rent values falling drastically. https://www.in2013dollars.com/...
In a market like this it becomes how can I add value to make this property work and then what can I pay given that I am going to be adding value. You don't find a good deal you make a good deal.
Some of the places I bought 5 years ago I know for a fact 80% of the people on these forums would balk at when I bought them. Now they cash flow pretty well and offer a good alternative to my stock holdings. Not to mention I've refinanced all of my initially invested cash out at this point.
I saw some comments that said that they laugh at "below market rents" because the seller is going with a list price for a building with at market rents. That's just not factual, they are being listed based on comparative sales. Similar condition, unit count, etc. It's residential real estate when it comes to 2-4 units. The more units you have the more you can do an income approach, but no matter what you are going to be paying for "potential" in a sellers market. Same goes even for commercial real estate which is usually valued more on the income method.
A lot of the places I bought in the past had way below market rents and I still paid what they wanted. Because I knew that it really wasn't that hard to get the building to market rents. Within a year and easily within 2 you can have a building at market rents and ready to go for the long term. They aren't listing it at a price for a property with market rents, they are charging a price based on a comparative sales analysis. I still pass on a lot of deals too, it's fine to pass, but you also need to consider what you're going to turn it into just as much as what it is currently.