Originally posted by @Joe Villeneuve:
1 - When you put 20% down on the property, you are buying equity (that's your cost), and the starting Property value is set. A 20% DP means your cash (DP) bought a property worth 5 times the DP. That also means that ratio of your cost to PV is 1 to 5.
2 - Property values go up based on appreciation (mostly).
3 - For every dollar of appreciation, you gain that same dollar in equity...and it's free equity.
4 - If the property appreciated 20%, that means your PV also went up 20%...and your equity doubled.
This may seem like a good thing, and it is. You just doubled your equity and didn't have to pay for it...and your property went up in value. However...
5 - The new ratio between equity and PV is now 1 to 3. This means for every dollar of equity, you only have $3 in PV. This is less than the 1 to 5 ratio you started out with when you bought the property. This also means the value of your equity has gone down.
Refinancing doesn't recover all of the equity. What it does is take that free equity you got from appreciation, and make you pay for it. You are NOT getting your money out of the property when you refi. You are using your money as collateral so the bank can sell you new money.
If you are using that money you got out of the refi property as a down payment on the next property, it isn't free...like the original cash DP was on the how you refied. That DP comes from the refi, which is a loan, with attached interest, and that is a cost. In other words you are paying for the DP money on that next house.
Joe, I found this and your other post ("The property isn't the asset. Your equity is. The property is just the vehicle your asset is riding at that time. When you sell, you retain the asset...you just moved it to a different location. When you refi, you're paying for the use of that asset. You're using that asset as collateral, and you are paying for new money that the bank is selling you.") a fascinating concept, so I tried to put some numbers to it. Hoping this helps some other people think through this too.
Assumptions:
- An area where you can buy deals at a 7% CAP
- A lender that will loan and/or refinance 80% LTV at 4% interest on a 25 yr am
Starting Deal:
- Pay $100k for a property, with $20k down. (Side note, you can also imagine this as a more complete BRRRR where you bought & rehabbed that property at $80k total with hard money, and created $20k of equity for yourself with a property now worth $100k through your hard work. Either way, you have $20 equity.)
- NOI is $7k, Debt service is $5067, Cash flow is $1933
- 9.7% cash-on-equity return on your $20k investment (cash-on-cash return is also 9.7%)
Per Joe's example, appreciation happens and the property is now worth $120k. (I think it's worth pointing out here that I believe Joe was talking about market appreciation, not forced appreciation. If your increased property value corresponds linearly to increased NOI, we're talking a very different story than the numbers I'm sharing.)
You now have $40k in equity. While your cash-on-cash return is still 9.7%, your cash-on-equity return is now halved to 4.8%. That extra $20k equity is doing you no good. Sad.
You decide to find a way to use that added equity. (Great idea!) For sake of simplicity, you have two choices:
Scenario 1: Refinance your first property, and invest the proceeds into a new property. (Carrying on with the BRRRR model.)
Scenario 2: Sell the property, and invest all the proceeds in a new property. (I believe Joe is suggesting you do a 1031 exchange here to defer capital gains taxes. In my area, 1031 intermediaries can be found for around $600, so this is well worth it.)
Here's the numbers (hang with me):
Scenario 1:
Property 1: Now worth $120k, your 80% refinance nets you a cash-out of $16k. This property now has debt of $96k and equity of $24k. Your debt service is now $6081. **Your rents haven't changed.** Your cash flow is now $919. Your cash-on-equity return is now 3.8%.
Property 2: You take your $16k cash-out and buy the highest valued property at an 80% puchase LTV you can, which is an $80k property. Same 7% CAP rate, so $5600 NOI, $4054 debt service, $1546 cash flow. 9.7% cash-on-equity return (same as our original property, which we'd expect!).
Both properties together: $200k value, $160k debt, $40k equity, $2466 cash flow. 6.2% cash-on-equity return.
Scenario 2:
Property 2 (only): Remember, you sold property 1 and have $40k. You buy a $200k property. Same 7% CAP rate, so $14000 NOI, $10,134 debt service, $3866 cash flow. 9.7% cash-on-equity return (sound familiar yet?).
Note: Real life isn't that simple, maybe a 7% CAP on a $200k property isn't possible (or maybe it is with a duplex, etc). Buying two new $100k properties would give the same numbers and returns (just harder work finding two deals).
Why the difference? (aka please tell me there was value in reading this long-*** number-filled post)
In both Scenarios, you're using all $40 of your equity to the maximum potential that your lending situation allows (80% LTV). But that equity isn't being used equally in both Scenarios.
In Scenario 1, for Property 1, after the refinance you've got an additional $4k equity (on top of your $20k original) that isn't generating any increased income. (Because rents didn't go up.)
In Scenario 2, all $40 of your equity is making a 7% CAP rate, because it was reinvested.
Joe, this is where I agree with your outcome and ultimate advice, but not quite on the reasoning behind it. Whether refinancing vs selling and re-investing, you're going to borrow roughly the same amount and pay the bank the same interest cost. The problem with refinancing equity gained through any kind of appreciation not linearly correlated to increased income, is it leaves a portion of your gained equity stuck in the original asset, not earning as much as it could in a new asset. (And maybe that is what you were saying, and I missed it.) Either way, I very much appreciate you making these points, it's a major reframing for me of the best use of equity gained through rehab/BRRRR/appreciation, and it's definitely worth everyone's while to think through and understand the concept.
Note to everyone: Again I want to reiterate, gaining equity from a direct increase in NOI is a different story (this is more common in multifamily). If I turn that original $7000 NOI into $8400 NOI, and the property is now worth $120k because of that (still a 7% CAP), a refinance will keep me at exactly the same 9.7% cash-on-equity return for that property. No difference in that case between refinancing and selling. But if I also gain additional value/equity from turning a class C property into a class B property (i.e. the CAP rate goes down) - now we're back to the same scenario where refinancing leaves equity earning less income, and selling and re-investing is the best use of equity. I'm living that example right now actually, and very, very glad we sold and are re-investing the equity. (Hello, William Nickerson's "How I Turned $1,000 Into One (Five) Million in Real Estate in My Spare Time".)
Hope this was all helpful to someone else, because it's way past my bedtime!