This is a great topic.
What I know for sure is that no one knows for sure! There is no easy answer to the question as there are too many variables today, terrorism,sinking dollar, inflation, and out of control appreciation in many real estate markets etc. What goes up unrealistically also tanks eventually or has an adjustment period, which is tanking for those that are too far leveraged.
Aside from a nuke the re market will continue to do well or at least ok for those that are seasoned investors. Prices are dropping almost everywhere including my stomping grounds, Washington state and other parts of the Northwest.
Arizona and some areas in Cal are taking big hits. I have some investments in Ariz and will probably lose some $ on one of them.
I bought the property I live on in 1973 ( 30 acres) for 36k, $1200 an acre at the bottom of a dip. 5 years later property in this area was selling for 8k an acre and then the recession of the 80's hit. The property decreased in value by half and took 10 years to come back..
Can this happen again, probably. Will it happen again, probably in some areas?
For those that are looking at areas offering cheap real estate, beware. Do your homework. Some areas like northern Idaho will probably do ok for a while but property is not as cheap as it was a year or two ago. Spokane Washington just a couple years ago was way below market. Today there are few listings. It was discovered and the market went crazy.
The only jobs there are service and farming. Will the boom last? I suspect not for too much longer, but what do I know?
I like to invest where the good jobs are for most of my properties with the exception of the trailer court I have in Idaho...JB
U.S. 2Q OFHEO home price index up 4.7% annualized
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By Rex Nutting
Last Update: 10:06 AM ET Sep 5, 2006
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- U.S. home prices were appreciating at a 4.7% annual rate in the second quarter, the slowest gains since 1999, the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight said Tuesday. In the past year, home prices are up 10.1%. The purchase-only index is up 8.3% in the past year. The deceleration in OHFHEO's home price index is the fastest in the three-decade history of the index. "These data are a strong indication that the housing market is cooling in a very significant way," said James Lockhart, OFHEO director. In the first quarter, home prices had risen at an 8.8% annualized rate, with prices up 12.8% year-over-year.