Originally posted by @Fred Heller:
I have to disagree with the notion that property taxes don't play a role when someone is deciding on buying a home. I don't think it's top of mind, but it definitely is a factor.
Texas is a pretty high tax state. And if the property is in a MUD or a high-tax school district, the taxes can be pretty outrageous. I had a listing a couple of years ago for a modest middle-range home valued at $165,000. It was in a MUD and in one of the top school districts in the state. Between the MUD tax and the school tax (they have to pay for those $95 Million dollar stadiums somehow), the annual property taxes were around $5000 a year. I can tell you that more than a couple of potential buyers turned chilly when they realized how much they would be spending on property taxes.
Ha, I wish our taxes were that low! The total property taxes on one of our SFRs assessed under $100k is just under $5k.
And for the privilege of paying some of the highest property tax rates in the country (we had 5 or 7 counties in the top 10 in the USA, last I checked) we have some of the worst schools in the state, no new 'real' businesses, deteriorating roads, and receive no services (garbage, recycling, etc.) in return.
Oh, and we haven't seen double-digit temperatures in a week or two now, unless they started with a minus sign. Gotta love New York.
And yet....people still choose to live here, just like they choose to live in areas like Seattle and San Francisco. Here we deal with all of the above hassles, and we complain about it, but we still buy houses here. Seattle and San Francisco deal with ridiculous, absurd, ludicrous (seriously, it's just stupid in those areas) home prices, and not getting to deduct the full amount of the property taxes on a house assessed at over $750k will just be one more thing for people in those areas to complain about.
All that said - I would be pretty shocked if the changes to the tax code involving property tax deductions were primary driving force behind a significant price change in any of those areas. More than likely, I would expect to see the effects of the tax changes offset by increased consumer confidence and some actual real wage growth.