@Steve K. yes definitely repair that hat because I saw that question coming from a mile away.
The answer is, it depends. There are two ways to define hurdle rates, IRR and annualized return. If the hurdle is IRR the priority won't change the total dollars because by definition achieving an IRR includes the return of capital and the priority of pref vs. capital doesn't matter. But if the waterfall is based on an annualized return the amount of pref due will decline as the capital shrinks with each return of capital distribution.
That said, while the total dollars of pref does decline, the total due to the investor doesn't decline dollar-for-dollar because what happens to the excess dollars is they drop to the next tier. So if the next tier is an 80% split to the investor, you'll get 80% of the extra dollars that would have been pref if the priority was pref first and return of capital later. At the end of the day the effect on the IRR is probably not as significant as one might assume. But the only way to know for sure is to model it because the structure of the subsequent tiers matters and so does the timing of the cash flows, etc.
I'm not convinced that going through the exercise of modeling alternative structures is worth the effort--if the sponsor isn't offering the other structure how does it benefit you to model it out? You model it and find out you could get 50bps in additional IRR if the investment were structured differently, but it's not, so you can't have it, so what do you do? LOL
And yes, requiring fewer dollars to reach hurdles does benefit the sponsor by making it easier to achieve the hurdles. But again, we're not talking a world of difference here. Since the tiers only divide cash flow remaining after preceding tiers are satisfied the dollars to the sponsor in this scenario won't be the difference between them retiring or not. Instead, it'll be the difference on them getting 50% of those last dollars versus say 40% or 30% as the case may be in the preceding tiers. So, a benefit, yes, but earth shattering, probably not.
This is the dirty little secret in the syndication world--the IRR is really an act of financial engineering because the property-level cash flows can be divided in so many ways and these details do matter. But then again, rather than focusing on the nuances of the waterfall I'd be more inclined to focus on what really moves the IRR needle, and that's the cash going IN to the waterfall. If the assumptions made for rent & expense growth, post-renovated rents, economic vacancy factors and expenses are way off, the IRR you are looking at isn't worth the paper it's printed on no matter how the waterfall is designed. Same goes for sponsors that don't execute well...they won't achieve their projected IRRs either unless the market bails them out. But it's easy to want to focus on the nuances of the waterfall because those things are quantifiable and calculable, whereas sponsor skill, execution, and assumptions are far more elusive.