Originally posted by @Curtis Mears:
@Steve K.
if they make economic sense, why don't people install without the mandate? I know people who installed only because government paid a large portion of the bill. If not, they would not be feasiblefor them. also, now that they are mandated. the price will increase. kind of how when buying crayons for school kids, the smaller mandated packs are more expensive than the larger packs. it is inevitable.
Curtis, People do install solar without the mandate. Solar has a wide adoption across the US, and doubling every few years. 19% of California's electricity came from solar in 2018, and there are about 1 Million residential rooftop solar installations there. Utility scale solar provides enough electricity for an additional 9M homes. So I'd say people are installing them without the mandate. The CA Building Industry Association (CBIA) even supported the mandate because according to them, builders are putting solar on almost every new home in CA anyway.
So the question becomes, "If it's already so popular, why need a mandate?" and now that's a good question. I can't speak for the policy makers, but it's related to California's goal of being carbon free by 2045. I didn't follow the whole process as the mandate became law over the last 10 years, so I can't explain to you exactly how it came about, but I'm sure it was a shining example of government working in it's most wise and efficient form to refine the law into a perfect piece of legislation (sarcasm). As pro-solar as I am I also see how the "optics" of this aren't great. But I'm not against the mandate per-se as it will boost the industry I work in even further, and I believe it benefits everyone by pushing us to adopt more cost effective (long term) sources of energy.
The "large portion from the government" that you mentioned is the 30% federal tax credit. It's true solar wouldn't be where it is today without this tax credit (so thank you G.W. Bush who signed it onto law in 2005, and thank you current president for extending it through 2024). However, solar isn't alone as a subsidized energy source. Every single form of energy receives direct and indirect support from the government. Many trillions go to nuclear, coal, gas, hydro, and R&D for technologies we haven't yet heard of. Without government subsidies for energy our economy would literally collapse overnight.
As of now wind and solar are the only forms of energy we know of that have the potential to be cost effective without government support. In 2020 the solar tax credit begins going away, dropping a few percentage points each year and phasing out entirely by 2024. By then we won't need it, as we expect solar to have completely undercut legacy fuels in price. Contrary to your esteemed crayon theory, solar panel prices have not gone up, but down 75% since 2009. The mandate (although minor in the grand scheme of things because it only applies to 80,000 homes a year or far less than 1% of CA housing stock) will contribute to pushing prices down further (efficiencies of scale, competition, mass production).
On one level energy is extremely complicated, but on the most basic level it comes down to fossil fuels being a finite resource that becomes more rare and more expensive to extract over time, while sunshine and wind are free and abundant. Brace yourself for a lot more solar and wind coming soon to a place near you, as most all new energy capacity in the near future will be from renewables.
This Forbes article explains how quickly renewables are taking over:
https://www.forbes.com/sites/dominicdudley/2018/01...
