All Forum Posts by: Stephen Rinaldi

I would, if I had to guess in 10 years the suburban PA area is going to be priced closer to comps in the suburbs of DC/Boston/NY than where we are now.  Alot of industry and greate schools are driving people to the area.. southern NJ too

There will be no solution for inventory where my business is focused.. This country stop building for 15yrs and will never, unfortunately, focus on mid priced housing because the margains arent there.

Thats been what Im seeing the that area too

Just signed up with a lender with an excellent DSCR product in the 5's on 6 month ARM. If you are like me and expect rates to drop by EOY of 2023 then this is an intersesting options. In terms of risk/reward if you refinance with 12-18 months your worst case scenario is breaking even vs the 30yr fixed.

Im a student of this industry and I'm not seeing how rates dont drop significantly with in 12 months.  The inflation data is getting better and bank failure is asign that rate increases need to slow down.  Even the Fed is openly talking about rate decreases in 2024.

I own a mortgage broker shop, Rinaldi Group LLC. We are big in PA, but also do substantial business in DE, NJ and have started gaining traction in MD and FL. Its amazing to be the wide range of markets I see, for example in the suburbs of PA you will need to name your first born child after the seller to get an agreement of sale, also in most parts of DE, but in some part of Philly and NJ houses are sitting making the market more buyer friendly. Im just curious about where other people live and work to see if there has been a drastic change over the last 6-12 months or if rates being higher has changed anything in terms buyers leverage.

Please comment the area you are speak on and what type of market you seeing

Thanks you in advance!!

If the country keeps spending money like a drunken sailor then all the positivity in the world wont save us. I do really believe just looking around at the what Im seeing the economoy, people are tightening up, there is a lag time, but generally speaking inflation data will start showing better soon

This is the most intriguing time in the mortgage industry I can remember. Very challenging, but some optimism on rates, allow me to share some positivity:  

Rate increases this fast and this high havent occurred in my life time.  I saw that mortgage applications are at their lowest in 28 yrs!  How does it get better, well first of all lets start with the Fed.  Their plan to curb inflation was to raise rates until something breaks, well banks are breaking. SVB is NOT an isolated incident, more issues are on the horizon and this will require a bail out and/or a bond pricing relief.  With the political climate we are in we should expect this "Bailout" to be more discreet... Expect rate relief.

Also, Inflation data is better than it appears, there is a lag time especially in housing. When this data is evaluated it, its usually year over year.. The higher inflation readinf starting showing in May 2022, once new data comes out showing current inflation data there will be improvement.

I think most people woild agree that consumers are tightening up, we just need more time to show that.

Id expect rates to be mid 4's- low 5's by 2024, and with that will come two things:

1) Values on the rise

2) Refi boom

For Home buyers this is a good time to buy, with one caveat, make sure that you know you limit in terms of monthly payment, thats a deep conversation with in your family. Once that establish make sure not venture higher, as much as I think I'm right and rates will drop best to prepare for the worst.  Let your monthly payment ceiling be your guide!

Im so interested to see what others in the country are seeing in their local markets.  My mortgage company is focused on delaware/chester county PA, NJ, DE and Florida and there is a wide range of competativeness.  For example in Philly, houses are sitting but right out side you'll need a miracle to get anything at or below asking.  In DE too, crazy jump in activity, NJ sellers are more flexible.  Such a wide range and a truly nuanced market.

How is you area?

Also, what do you think is the cause, I feel like cost of living is driving people to DE.. CHEAP TAXES.

As many know the rates on second homes jumped in 2021 and since then we have been looking for solutions. To those new to the game there used to be no difference between primary and second homes prior to 2021, if you can imagine. We have created a relationship with lender that will honor the old rules on 3-1 ARM, posting rates in the mid-low 5's. Its a tough market in PA DE NJ MD, especially with rates in the high 6's, but Im hoping that this product brings value this spring.

We are all on the edge of our seat to see what a recent rate bump effects the Spring Market..  Some recent positve economic news has pushed rates higher by nearly .5% in the past week or so.  Just as sellers begin to put signs on their front lawn.. VERY interesting to see how buyers respond to the payment shock that last rate jump caused.  Will this lead to a balanced market, will this lead to a dud of spring market?  

My strategy as a mortgage broker is always: education, options and communication. Whether its buydown, ARMS or projecting worst case scenarios and prepping for an inevitable refinance. For my primary buyers, the 10/6 ARM in the 5.25-5.375% range is making alot of sense.