@Mike Gehard You are getting great advice here. As a sponsor I don't want you all to feel I have ulterior motives with my comments.
When we present a project we try to be conservative, but not all sponsors are - particularly now when deals are harder to find and returns are trimming off a bit. They are good deals, but not 20% IRR, maybe not even 15% IRR.
I echo what other investors say. These comments are from the sponsor viewpoint.
When a project is presented -
Are the market rents listed really the market rents for the area?
Is the deal recession proof?
Are there more than a couple of industries employing people, more than a half dozen employers?
Is population declining? (Run away unless there is a compelling reason to expect improvement)
Is income steady to rising, and sufficient to pay the rent?
How low can the occupancy go below it no longer breaks even?
Will the sponsor need your money longer than you want to give it up?
If they can't refinance, are you OK with that?
If the value add are renovations, do the numbers look reasonable? Sometimes the scale brings the cost down a bit so that it looks unreasonably low. Is there timeline reasonable for renovation?
Is the management company good at what they do, for this type of property?
I want to piggy back on @Sam Grooms comment about population growth, income growth for a 2-3 year flip. It is vital that it be in place to make sure you will be able to find a buyer when you want to flip. Plus is there any meat on the bone when it is time to flip so someone else can see the value. We don't always sell to REIT's.
Going the a well known sponsor is not always the a safe move. I know of one fairly well known sponsor and have been told be investors that the numbers don't look like they will prove out. That being said, I don't think you should do a 100 unit apartment with someone with no experience. On our first deal we partnered with experience. You need experience in the stable.
Putting the project together is the job of the sponsor. You need to dissect it till you are comfortable. Though you may never be 100% comfortable. For most people, if they don't jump past their fear, they never jump in. That being said, there is a difference with feeling uncomfortable with a deal and fearing the deal might not work out. If you are comfortable that things look good, that's when you push past the fear. Risk/Reward quotient.
I concur with @Ben Leybovich what really is most important is the quality of the market, sub-market, and the deal. Deals are running longer. Though I am not sure there will be a 2007 downturn in the CRE market, there will be something. It could be a regional economic drop.
You may not fully break out everything in the project package and do a full underwriting, but you need to trust the numbers.
Trust is a big factor. Do you trust the sponsor?
Transparency is critical for our company. Any question asked, gets answered fully. But also just as important is
Is This Project Right For Your Objectives?
If I have a project that I expect to double the investors money in 7 years, but it turns out I can do it in 4 years - are you ok with that? Or would you prefer that we wait till year 7 to sell and try to get more than double. Some would be good with doubling, some would feel we didn't maximize returns.
That's enough from me for now. Hope it helped.