I guess my rant is not 100% about predicting the storm. I think is more about getting an idea of what makes the whole system tick. I see so many beginner real estate investors buying rental properties or fix and flips not understanding the whole picture. I guess at a very simple level I think that is just wrong.
The best example I can think of it a general contractor. Most general contractors understand all aspects of building a house. From the permits, to the roof, to the flooring, to the final inspection. I feel like many real estate investors do not dive deep into the mortgage industry.
The mortgage standards (what it takes to get a loan) is very much a function of how well the mortgage back securities are selling on wall street. Standards are going to be very low if the MBS market is very liquid. Home prices are a function of mortgage standards. Also, the rental market is a function of home prices.
Predicting a storm is just part of it. I should be able to look at the MBS market and use that data to help me figure out how much I can raise rents this year.