Originally posted by @Jimmy Humphrey:
@Elizabeth Colegrove Part of my concern about this entire being heavily leveraged in order to generate an income is that you have a negative net worth because of your leverage. You aren't really generating wealth, you are generating cash flow. And there is a fundamental difference between the two, and part of me worries that a lot of the common REI techniques pitched on here operate without any concern about net worth. It doesn't seem anybody ever ends up truly owning anything lock, stock, and barrel.
And that's not to pass judgment on you or others who employ leveraged techniques to investing in real estate. It's just a thing I'm tossing out there for consideration.
Don't make it a dichotomy where it's either wealth or cash flow as if they're not related. The cash flow you generate builds your net worth up in the same way, regardless of the capital structure. Leverage merely compounds the effects, better and worse.
For example, Bob Safe hates leverage and purchases rentals with all cash. He generates $1,000 a month in cash flow. His net worth is therefore increasing by $1,000 a month (assuming he plows all of that into the next single property). Susie Risk, however, loves leverage and only pays 20% on her rentals. She generates $1,000 a month in cash flow before the mortgage for each property.
The net worth impact from a rental is calculated by taking the value of the underlying asset (a home worth, say, $500,000) and subtracting the liabilities held against the asset (ignoring retained earnings). Leverage has no material immediate impact on net worth ceteris paribus, because Bob Safe has one $500,000 home contributing $500,000 to his net worth. His total outlay is $500,000. Susie Risk paid $500,000 for a 20% stake in five $500,000 houses, leaving her with a total net worth of $500,000. The difference is that she is receiving a cash flow from the properties that she will plow into additional houses, just like Bob Safe, but she also has a mortgage payment before cash flow that is enhancing her net worth through principal paydown. So even if Susie Risk has a slightly negative cash flow, she can be increasing her net worth at a faster rate than Bob Safe.
The problem is that a change in real estate prices will impact Susie five times as much as Bob. Houses appreciate 10%, Bob makes $50,000 and Susie makes $250,000. Houses depreciate by 10%, Bob loses $50,000 and Susie loses $250,000. At the end of the day, this has very limited impact as long as Susie has planned ahead. If she is relying on a HELOC to fund a new roof in a few years or on credit liquidity to facilitate any uh-ohs in the near-term, even a tiny decrease in property values will be devastating to her. (Corporations had huge problems with this in 2008.) BUT - if Susie maintains liquidity in the form of emergency reserve cash, untapped credit revolvers (through HELOCs taken out at the $500,000 notional value of the property, before the change in prices), or some other way of paying for the new roof or the uh-oh without additional or new financing, then she won't have to worry about property prices until she sells, which in the land of Warren Buffett is never.
This is why on this site, I always question those who say they ignore appreciation in determining their models for financing a deal. My general method is to assume (in the beginning) a sudden and drastic depreciation in order to stress test the financials and make sure the risks are managed properly to my risk appetite, which is quite hedged. Others will be happy (as I'm sure you noticed in your profession) to overconsume risk and, as the old economists would say, laissez faire ("let be what would be") with the downside possibilities.