Hi @Mark Updegraff,
I really appreciate your input, however I will say that yes, I am trying to get something at a discount, hence why I have in my search Criteria houses that need light repairs and have been listed for a longer period of time, why ? Because in my market supply hasn't kept up with demand and everyone that's selling their properties know that.
You stated on your answer that you think the reason the house is on the market for so long is because is overpriced or has issues, but then you said that I am trying to get lucky because I am trying to get it at a discount. You also said that I am not trying to buy an investment property, but get lucky, like if paying for an overpriced item was going to do me any good.
The reason I came here was to seek advice from people that have been on the game longer than me, have most likely experienced this in some sort of way in the past, and how they have dealt with it.
I will leave below my analysis for this particular property, maybe someone that knows my market (VA Beach ) can see something that I don't.
Asking Price: $370k
My Offer: $340k plus closings ( about $10k)
0% down, and buying my rate down to about 5.5% fixed at 30 yrs ( around an extra $2000 )-> PITI $2275 , plus 388 ( CapEx, Vacancy and Repairs) = 2663
Income: $2600
Then you see that even offering $340k and self managing I'd be -$63. However, I'd be living in this house for at least two years( VA loan 1 year required) while I am renting my other cash flowing property ( I am also in the process of pulling a HELOC to help funding my next deal). While living in the house I will be forcing appreciation by improving comps and give time to the rental market to catch up.
I spend my free time analyzing properties and 85% of them I don't even show it to my agent because of the unrealistic offers I would have to send for it to make sense. Also, I show the listings I want to put an offer on to my agent, he doesn't bring them to me, which I don't have a problem with.
I do agree he is a hard worker and a great person, I just don't think we have the same strategy approaches.
Respectfully.
The main point I'm trying to make is this, and I don't know the answer it would take a little due diligence which you could request from your agent. Which,
if he is unwilling to do then I will agree with the sentiment in this forum and that is to
find another agent.
What is the market value of that home? You see, you're subject to the forces of that market, unless you "get lucky" as I like to say. You can't fight the market, you can participate in it knowing full well what you're getting yourself into. Or you can choose to wait for a more favorable time. OR you can choose to find a more favorable location. The problem with your approach is that you want something SPECIFIC. The more specified you "investment" is the less likely it is you'll "get a deal"
True investors scour the entire market, in fact the may watch multiple markets in multiple locations! They're focused on opportunities. To the true investor it is about the numbers first and everything else second. By restricting your search you're restricting your ability to be a good investor. Ask yourself, is this really an investment or am I looking for a deal on something particular. Be honest with yourself too.
There are markets that a pro forma will NEVER work. Sitting around waiting for one in such a market is a waste of everyone's time.
Ask your agent to do this. Tell him: "Sir, I really want my next "investment" to be a 4 bed 2 bath 1600 sq ft colonial style with garage within the zip code of 12345 and within 1 mile of sunnyville elementary (or whatever your MUST HAVES are, he'll need them all). Can you please make a spreadsheet of all the homes sold in the last 90 days, and 365 day that fit this criteria within 100 + or - the square footage and they can have 4+ beds and 2+ beds." Once you have this data, you (or he) can do a quick analysis. What I do is add a column to calculate the price / ft of each sale and then reorder the data to go from lowest price / ft to highest. You'll need a least a dozen entries to get some accuracy to this. If you don't have it you'll need to open up your criteria a bit. Don't restrict by a criteria that is not common among houses, like lot size. If you want 4 acres but the average property in that area is 1/2 acre don't put that restriction on. This would be another parameter that tells me you're bargin hunting and not "investing". Once you have your list rank ordered take the subject property and multiply its square footage by the average of the middle 80% of the price / ft entries. This will give you an approximate value if the subject property's condition is similar to that 80% average. Ask him to also email you those comps so you can drill in and look at them and see if one or two stick out as "most similar" You can multiply that out by the subject sq ft and that should give you a really clear view on what MIGHT be attainable IF the market fundamentals are still the same. In my market, the "chasing" approach is a good place to start however sales are going way above asking so this metric isn't and end all be all for a good agent. A good agent will know the market and help you attain your goal. Remember in a market with rapidly rising prices delay may end up costing you more. I know everyone in this forum will shout things like "used car sales man" etc. Trust me, I've done this for 12 years. The people that listened to me, even in a rising market HAVE MADE OUT THE BEST. People with your approach have not.
As a disclaimer, I don't know this agent or if he's worth a ****. However, these stats are true: 20% of agents sell 80% of the real estate. Chances are, if you have one of these 20% you've got someone that knows the market VERY WELL and can help you attain your goal. What he or she CANT do is force the market to be something it is not.
All that said:
Asking price 370k, your net to seller offer 330. (Please, never add your concessions as "your offer", we're talking about net to seller. Like I said previously that 10k extra makes you look like a weak buyer).
SO your 40k Under his ask. This is 10.8% under list price. Let me be real with you, and maybe you ARE right about valuation. When you're on a market and you get an offer that is 10.8% less than asking, you're going to do a price reduction FIRST before you entertain the offer to see if there are other buyers that don't want to kick tires. Sorry, thems just the facts man. If you're not within ~5% of a list price, you're probably not going to do well. Be honest with yourself though, you want a house, and you want a deal. You're not an "investor" in this situation. You're a buyer that simply wants a discount.
QUICK TIP: If you can do the deal without the concessions have your agent construct the deals without the concessions and then after you've come to terms with a seller ask them to add the concessions back on top the offer. In this scenario you came to terms at 330k and then your agent would write an agreement that the seller agrees to add the 10k sellers to the top of the offer making it 340k and if the property does not appraise the buyer agrees to take them back off. What you're doing with the concessions as part of the offer is not smart. If the property doesn't appraise and I'm the seller now I just went down this road with your (at a discount to my list price none the less) and now I've got to discount it more if I want to do the deal, PLUS I've been off market for 2 months for possible other buyers).
Let me say this as well: The market is VERY sensitive when listings are even just a small amount over the true market value. He could be off by as little as 5k and it is hurting the seller to get it sold. If what you told me is true and it was severely overpriced to begin with then that would make complete sense. He could be one 5k price cut away from the landing the appropriate buyer. Hell, he could be one 5k cut away from multiple offers pushing it past 370!! I'm not kidding, I've see it.
Final disclaimer. You could be right, or I could be right. Do that exercise and find out. If I was a gambler, I would put money on me 😜