All Forum Posts by: Sid N.

@Derek I am looking for multi family . will get in touch with you .

@Jesse pls pm me agent details . looking for property management also .

Kiran did you try any agent . I am looking for one also for Sacramento area .

Also is there any site which gives historical rental prices in bay area  ? zillow has only till 2010

I am trying to map historical price v/s yearly rent ratio . One of the tools I want to use for my analysis .This ratio is location specific and texas would have  totally different ratio then bay area and even in bay area there would be discrepancy across hot areas v/s normal .In Fremont,CA  during the peak of 2005  Price/Yearly rent was at 27(approx) .. Now this ratio is around 22 . I believe rentals really mark the affordability and home price affordability + investing euphoria . If Euphoria was not there we would be living in a perfect world :-) . hence this ratio to me is important . If jobs increase rental prices will increase hence keeping in balance the ratio , however due to invester sentiment the ratio will still decrease further . One of the factors would be to get out of the real estate market when this ratio is around 25 in Fremont . Any thoughts ?  

@Karen I would be interested in pre construction deals if available . pls keep me posted about your San Clemente condos .

Of course I will buy only which I can close on . lets look at other options.  If I want to buy in bay area . I have to buy with 30% down minimum and still be cash negative, manage the tenant and wait for 2-3 years to sell assuming I am going to sell . Of course this would be one way of profiting from ,not the only way .

I am from bay area,sfo  and I am looking at Miami Pre Construction condos . What would be the best way to go about  ?  Some of my reservations on going forward are

1. builder completing project 

2.I may be shown a different unit then what I will be delivered.

Also how can I narrow down my area of focus me being hundreds  of miles away ? 

Upside is I can put 10% down on a property which will be delivered in 2-3 years and 

sell it without carry a loan or managing a tenant . Kind of a flip .

This is assuming appreciation of course . Any thoughts appreciated !! 

yes I agree with Brian . I think its too soon to call for a crash . 

Whenever in doubt I always look at this wonderful analysis by Paragon .

http://www.paragon-re.com/3_Recessions_2_Bubbles_a...

IT shows data from 1983-2014 for San francisco and shows the last 3 recoveries and last 3 bubbles . I do think real estate is a momentum play and it takes time for people to believe that things will go other way just as it took time for people to think real estate will start rising  .  We are still not at the point where you hear the phrase  that "real estate never goes down ". When we start hearing of that its time to SELL !!! :-)

Each of the last 3 recoveries ( other than the dot com crash one ) we have risen 100% from the bottom (as per the link chart ) . We are in 35-60% range from the bottom now in most of bay area cities which means the cycle still has legs . Since the correction was more than the last recessions 27% v/s 10% on average we may even shoot that 100% recovery this time . That does not mean it is a done deal, any major economic shock or external factors like crisis in china could derail the recovery but it could be treated something like the dot com crash of 2000 where the market slipped 10% and resumed its rally quickly unlike the typical real estate recessions .

Another interesting analysis from the chart is that the last couple of years you see maximum appreciation which has been 15-20% per year on average . 

I have a couple of condos in bay area which I can offload for the construction and would also need bank financing . I have no experience with building that is why I need to partner with a GC .

Hi,

I am looking to buy land in bay area , CA and construct a 4 plex or 6 plex by partnering with a local GC . Where can I get some referrals on this ? 

has anyone been on such a path ? trying to look other than traditional methods of appreciation by staying in my current job and doing it part time /active partnering with local GC .