It seems to me that despite the near-constant protests to the contrary from certain people in the dark recesses of the internet, the tendency of large countries with powerful militaries is that they do not collapse.
However, when I have conversations with perhaps the vast majority of other people in my friends group, and certainly in recesses of internet forums, subreddits, and facebook groups, the prevailing consensus is that I am crazy.
I am told that the US debt creates imminent collapse. That political turmoil will result in a civil war. That income inequality will have see societal overhaul. That war in other parts of the world will trigger deglobalization and collapse. Etc. Etc.
People literally believe this and plan their lives and investment approaches around it.
These people who argue for collapse often point out things like:
- Real Wages, adjusted for inflation, are going down over the decades. People today can't buy the same stuff they did 50 years ago (This is totally false).
- The US national debt is at some number that makes it untenable. (The US national debt is high, but not past the point of no return at a 5-6:1 debt to income ratio).
- Income Inequality is spiraling (Income inequality rose substantially from 2000-2020. In the last few years, income inequality has actually decreased. I believe that this is due to (finally) rising interest rates deflating asset values, which is highly correlated to the exponential increases in income for top earners like CEOs, executives, money managers, RE investors, and Private Equity Groups.
To me, the only logical stance is "rational optimism" (I heard this term from Morgan Housel). There's always going to be a war, pestilence, famine, political power struggle, uprising, strike, terrorist threat, meteor, volcano, tusnami, or other disaster looming on the horizon - and it's impossible to state what the next cataclysm will be. But, at the same time, society marches on. People invent. People find creative new solutions. People optimize. Society finds solutions. Capitalism, and the United States, tends to see the standard of living of it's people increase over time.
People will protest, scream, stamp, and tell me how wrong and privileged I am. How life is not better today than it was in 1950.
That's fine. Maybe they are right and I'm missing something.
But, I will continue to bet on a continued trajectory of progress in quality of life for most people in this country over the ensuing decades. While making sure my position in the near-term is well-fortified against near-term threats that can stop me from realizing the bounty that I believe is inevitable as we march into the future.
I look forward to being told I'm crazy. Tell me about it!
