All Forum Posts by: Account Closed

Does anyone know any of any links to quantitative papers written on Arizona’s water supply? Flagstaff this year hasn’t gotten any snow. They’re building like crazy in Phoenix. Last year lake Mead was only a couple inches away from the first declared drought in Arizona. then we got a monster storm and it rose up. But eventually it will go below the mark and Arizona will have its first to declared drought. Looking for research data on Arizona’s long term water supply.

In the previous thread of mine I said I’d come back to revisit this thread in 12 months well it’s little bit more than 12 months. Now where is the S&P 500? It’s close to 3000. So everyone on this thread who said my advice was very risky well they were absolutely wrong. You have to know history to understand the future. I study history.

@michael delpier Mike, take a look at the data. I don’t see a whole lot of 50% declines. I do see some severe declines but within a year or two it’s up already. Remember what happened in 1987, market fell 25% in two or three days. But look by years end it was up 5%. Because the big tax cuts the S&P 500 price to earnings ratio‘s are headed down not up. The bottom line is today’s stock prices will actually be cheaper at these same prices. Crazy but true. Stock market is wealth generator Both RE and the stock market will create incredible wealth S&P500 With dividends 2017 21.83 2016 11.92 2015 1.31 2014 13.81 2013 32.43 2012 15.88 2011 2.07 2010 14.87 2009 27.11 2008 -37.22 2007 5.46 2006 15.74 2005 4.79 2004 10.82 2003 28.72 2002 -22.27 2001 -11.98 2000 -9.11 1999 21.11 1998 28.73 1997 33.67 1996 23.06 1995 38.02 1994 1.19 1993 10.17 1992 7.60 1991 30.95 1990 -3.42 1989 32.00 1988 16.64 1987 5.69 1986 19.06 1985 32.24 1984 5.96 1983 23.13 1982 21.22 1981 -5.33 1980 32.76 1979 18.69 1978 6.41 1977 -7.78 1976 24.20 1975 38.46 1974 -26.95 1973 -15.03 1972 19.15 1971 14.54 1970 3.60 1969 -8.63 1968 11.03 1967 24.45 1966 -10.36 1965 12.45 1964 16.59 1963 23.04 1962 -9.20 1961 28.51 1960 -0.74 1959 11.59 1958 43.40 1957 -9.30 1956 6.38 1955 28.22 1954 55.99 1953 -0.80 1952 18.35 1951 23.10 1950 34.28 1949 15.96 1948 9.51 1947 2.56 1946 -12.05 1945 39.35 1944 19.67 1943 23.60 1942 21.74 1941 -9.09 1940 -8.91 1939 2.98 1938 17.50 1937 -32.11 1936 32.55 1935 54.93 1934 -8.01 1933 56.79 1932 -5.81 1931 -44.20 1930 -22.72 1929 -9.46 1928 47.57 1927 37.10 1926 11.51 1925 25.83 1924 27.10 1923 5.45 1922 29.07 1921 10.15 1920 -13.95 1919 19.67 1918 18.21 1917 -18.62 1916 8.12 1915 31.20 1914 -5.39 1913 -4.73 1912 7.18 1911 3.52 1910 -3.39 1909 16.15 1908 39.47 1907 -24.21 1906 0.64 1905 21.29 1904 32.16 1903 -17.09 1902 8.28 1901 19.45 1900 20.84 1899 3.66 1898 29.32 1897 20.37 1896 3.25 1895 5.01 1894 3.63 1893 -18.79 1892 6.14 1891 18.88 1890 -6.16 1889 7.09 1888 3.34 1887 -0.64 1886 11.98 1885 30.06 1884 -12.32 1883 -5.49 1882 3.61 1881 0.27 1880 26.63 1879 49.37 1878 16.29 1877 -1.06 1876 -14.15 1875 5.44 1874 4.72 1873 -2.49 1872 11.16 1871 15.64

@Karen O Yup, But there are so many ways and methods to get the job done. One method is: Two of my investments I have with a mortgage company that only requires you to live in it one year after buying it as a primary. So you capture the low mortgage rate and low down payment (3%) of a primary. Then you’re out of it a year later n convert it to a rental. So many ways to get the job done.

Great question, I love the market, the stock market, indexing. I also have 2/3 of my investments in real estate. A bunch of engineers and I sat down and ran a bunch of numbers and we determined how real estate will beat the S&P 500 over the long run. Here’s how it goes. Buy a home in a very good area and put down as low as possible. For example, put down 3% on a $300,000 home. That’s $9000. Now wait 21 years and a $300,000 home is now worth $600,000. Your original investment was only $9000. So you’ve turned $9000 into $600,000 over 21 years. Hands-down that beats the S&P 500. Of course there are costs associated over the 21 years like maintenance costs, etc... And then capital gains n recaptured depreciation when sold.

Just adding to conversation. I am moving out of my primary residence in a few months and will rent it out. I have been in the house four years. I moving into an apartment. Can I still benefit with using the house as a primary residence? Thereby accumulating more time as a primary residence per IRS guidelines? I will be moving back into the house in two or three years. Thanks in advance

With the existing law, you can have somebody in your primary residence renting it out for almost 2 years, without depreciate it, then sell it with no capital gains as long as you've owned the house for five years. With the new law I now I wonder when you must start depreciating it before they come after you.

I would say keep it too. In time the renters will pay off the mortgage, if you take the cash flow n apply it to principle, it'll be paid off much quicker, and then down the road now you have a $430k to $450k or a $500k asset versus $125K today minus taxes. Wealth is about building assets!

Well, there are some interesting things going on. It appears as if average wages will start going up. They been held low for a very very long time. If wages do consistently go up over time then housing prices should follow in a nice orderly fashion. Now I'm talking the average wages. Because in my profession I get 3 to 4% a year for the last 15-20 years. So, where ever you do buy we should start seeing some nice price increases in housing coming.

Bammmm, so a year ago you said it was speculation to be in the stock market. Now a year later you're saying oh $60 grand is nothing. Come on man, you got to admit stock markets pretty sweet deal over the long term. I guess I'm a hedger because I've got half my wealth in real estate and half in the stock market and I can tell you that the stock market is a whole lot less work. Bammm! I gave you guys the bottom of the market in February 2016. And you didn't buy into it. Easy money that you didn't make it. Bammmm!