Arizona Water Supply

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Does anyone know any of any links to quantitative papers written on Arizona’s water supply? Flagstaff this year hasn’t gotten any snow. They’re building like crazy in Phoenix. Last year lake Mead was only a couple inches away from the first declared drought in Arizona. then we got a monster storm and it rose up. But eventually it will go below the mark and Arizona will have its first to declared drought. Looking for research data on Arizona’s long term water supply.

[Clare Stielstra]

I also live in Flagstaff, and since our real estate portfolio is still small I continue to work my "real job" as a water resources consultant (I work for a consulting firm based in Tucson: http://elmontgomery.com).

Naturally the issue of water supply is something that I am very interested in so I'll try to provide some helpful links. The short answer is that its complicated and there is no "one size fits all" answer for the entire state; some municipalities are more vulnerable than others. It is true that Arizona is generally ahead of most other states when it comes to water legislation and planning. We look especially good when compared to California - AZ passed its Groundwater Act in 1980; CA just passed its first groundwater legislation last year. Somewhat surprisingly, Atlanta, Georgia also has a far less reliable water supply than Phoenix. Here is a summary of water management in AZ: http://www.azwater.gov/AzDWR/PublicInformationOffi...

Water resources in Arizona can be summarized into 3 general categories: 

1) Groundwater: considered an unsustainable resource because withdrawal rates exceed aquifer recharge rates. Some areas of the state have large groundwater reserves; however, the general consensus is that groundwater is not a long-term solution.

2) Colorado River, delivered via CAP: obviously this is dependent on snowpack in the Rockies. Here is some more info on how they plan to address drought: http://www.cap-az.com/public/blog/258-colorado-riv...

3) Other surface water (e.g. reservoirs such as Lake Roosevelt, Lake Pleasant, etc.): these are dependent on local precipitation and are replenished on a roughly annual basis. Here is a link to a summary of Arizona's surface water supplies: http://elmontgomery.com/status-of-arizona-surface-...

Furthermore, water related technologies (e.g. potable reuse) are on the rise: https://watereuse.org/watereuse-research/11-00-dir...

When a new development is proposed there is a process required to assure that there is adequate water available: http://www.azwater.gov/AzDWR/WaterManagement/AAWS/...

I dont have a concise, peer-reviewed summary of projected water resources for the state, but my personal/professional opinion is that water issues are not new (we have been fighting over water in the west for as long as we've been "owning land" out here), and they are also not going away (job security for me). Compared to many states, Arizona is reasonably well prepared for a hotter, drier future, so I don't think this a valid reason to invest elsewhere.

Happy to discuss further if anyone is interested!