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All Forum Posts by: Serena Liao

Serena Liao has started 1 posts and replied 14 times.

Post: Blue Ridge and Bryson City

Serena LiaoPosted
  • Investor
  • VA
  • Posts 14
  • Votes 1
Quote from @Ryan Moyer:
Quote from @Kyle H.:

@Matt Schreiber I live and invest in Bryson City with 12 STR units currently in addition to a LTR portfolio, and have been on Airbnb with units since 2016. We basically saw a 25-30% increase of listings year over year the last two years which has saturated/diluted the market. I would say our local Realtors pushed some fairly unreasonable occupancy numbers to buyers and now they are all freaking out and dropping their prices or having their management drop prices. Demand is also down, I have my ear pretty close to the ground here and the majority of my friends and circle either own businesses here or have rentals and the consensus is that we are back to 2019 numbers +/- about 5%. The majority of my units are smaller and have typically rented more last minute but most of my peers here in town are seeing this trend with larger properties as well this year. Anecdotally I know of 4-5 people who have already transitioned from STR to LTRs here in the last couple months due to low occupancy. It will flush out here in my opinion in 12-18 months as most people will exit the market due to not coming close to occupancy numbers to feed the beast. I run all my pro forma numbers at 55% occupancy and have always been way above that but 20 and 21 were freakish in occupancy rates here outside of the moratorium we were slapped with (I ran over 90%). Everyone has their own way of running numbers but I have seen so many cabins sell here that wouldn't pencil out with any leverage even at high occupancy rates.


I was listening to a podcast last week and liked this paraphrased discussion the seasoned STR host was describing that he had been having several times in private recently.

New STR Investor: My occupancy rate is only 60% which is lower than expected and I'm not covering my costs. I'm freaking out!
Seasoned STR Investor: What is the historical occupancy rate?
New: Well the data last year was 90% but I underwrote conservatively at 85%
Seasoned: What is the HISTORICAL occupancy rate, not just last year?
New: I dunno, probably around 60% or so.
Seasoned:  ...


How to figure out the historical data? Like before COVID?  

Quote from @Chris Seveney:

@Serena Liao

People couldn’t give properties away even in 2019 before covid and they would sit on market for 6-12 months. Like I said we bought a condo for $25k and sold it during covid for close to $100k. Now $25k was a steal but it was sitting on the market. Why did this happen? Because during 2004-2007 people were buying and paying crazy prices because real estate will never go down. Many of these were 2nd homes or rentals and they then sat vacant for a long time and people could not afford two homes. They had a huge spike in inventory for a decade.

Will this repeat? I don’t know I am just stating what it was like before covid which I think is a blip and threw the market into something that is not sustainable and not something I would consider to be the norm.

Thanks for sharing. There was a recent sold, 340K for 900sq ft riverfront A frame with a small yard… crazy 
Quote from @Chris Seveney:

@Michael Porche

I would be careful of Shenandoah Virginia - having invested there pre covid people couldn’t give properties away in that area. From 2008-2018 real estate was awful. You could buy condos for $25k (which we did).

I do not believe that market for STR's is sustainable.

@Chris Seveney was that bad? During Covid, it was booming like insane…even now when a property with a little view or decent size or turkey , people are still bidding on it within a few days. 

Quote from @Andrew Street:

@Wilson Hunter I think it's definitely an interesting take that people will vacation even though they may not have the money to do so. I could see it being a momentary thing based on the overall impact a recession could have on the community. I, myself, think of the down turn as more of a correction than anything else, so I hope that is the case. I imagine the true STR's will continue to find success as there will still be people with excess funds.

I think the top 5% - 10% properties in a certain market/area should doing fine, because more than 10% population will still do vacation even with the more luxury price tag. But the average properties with average price ( most of the properties) will suffer more or less. And the cheapest one may survive too? because people can afford … 

Hi @Chris Martin

I’m doing the research in the areas you mentioned above too. And I may say I focus on the ski resorts, like Massanutten, wintergreen, hoping people will come in both summer and winter. For a lot of the homes, the bookings don’t look good in spring and fall, even part of winter. also # of hosts have been exploding with much higher price now. may i know your other plans? 

Quote from @John Underwood:
Quote from @Serena Liao:
Quote from @John Underwood:

Purchase price has nothing to do with appreciation potential.

I am still getting new highs for nightly rates and high occupancy rates.

If you didn't select a great property or area then you might not be doing as well.

Good point. But how about the right price part?

 Are you talking about purchase price or nightly price?

You spreadsheet where you analyze the property will tell you if the property will work as a STR at a certain purchase price.

STR comps from your neighbors will set a baseline for nightly prices. I push through the upper price set by similar properties as I have an awesome property that I take care of and that has close to 200 five star reviews on. Making your property stand out will allow you to charge more and people are happy with the value they are getting on creating memories with their families.

 Thank you @John Underwood! When I look at the calendars of the comparable properties, it probably only tells me their booking situation 30-60 days down the road. How am I going to figure out the other months?  I know airdna or Rabbu  seansonal information, but it’s more like overall estimate, is it reliable? 

Also do you worry about occupancy or property value tanks in the near future? Besides awesome properties are always hard to find, shall we just wait until it pops? I’m so nervous about investing an average property, have it sitting empty and lose paper money, if situation gets harder. 

Post: Best vacation rental market

Serena LiaoPosted
  • Investor
  • VA
  • Posts 14
  • Votes 1
Quote from @Michael Weigum:

Hi @Samuel Filter

Myrtle Beach has been a good spot for me. My family and I moved to South Carolina from Colorado 2 years ago. We looked up and down the east coast for oceanfront property and settled on Myrtle Beach because there is a lot of opportunity here. Prices are good, it is an investor friendly place and the revenues are good. 14 million people visit here every year, so it makes it a good investment in my experience.

Hi Michael, Is it saturated? And is the price  sustainable? 
Quote from @Bruce Woodruff:
Quote from @Amy W.:

How do I check the competition? You mean the occupancy and revenue bits on AirDNA?


No, he means go on VRBO, then AirBnB, and check out very similar properties (BR/BA, Location, Amenities). See exactly when they are occupied, and exactly how much they are charging/getting per night over different weeks/months/seasons. Using the algorithms to do your searches is hit and miss. If this is really that important and you can only do it again in 10 years, don't you want to know the exact numbers?

What we are saying is there is no easy way to do things right....

I found this is true. I have watched Shenandoah area for a few weeks. And some data in Airdna is ridiculously off. While Rabbu is a little better. 

I have a relevant question here, how do you estimate different months? Since by looking at competitors you only get an idea about 30-60 days ahead. And I’m not sure if Airbnb’s seasonal data is accurate.  
Quote from @Chase Hoover:

Literally a post on this same topic every day

Hi Chase, I know you are a successful investor and a realtor, what’s your investing strategy now? And how do you analyze properties in current market? 
Quote from @John Underwood:

Purchase price has nothing to do with appreciation potential.

I am still getting new highs for nightly rates and high occupancy rates.

If you didn't select a great property or area then you might not be doing as well.

Good point. But how about the right price part?