Mark Ferguson,
I had looked at those comps and yes, it's clear that I'm paying market value.
The last home we had under contract was very much under market price, but would have required significant rehab work. More than we were willing to do.
From what I have gathered, the homes north of 10th St have very different rental clientele.
And from what research I've done, the further west of the University you are, the lower rent you can command. All things being equal, what is the difference between buying a home for 130,000 that rented for 1,300/month vs 150,000 that rented for 1,500/month? With this property I can target a diverse market of single families, grad students, young professionals, university employees etc.
Looking at house #5 that you bought, you put in a total of 36.5k. Your COC is estimated to be 23.8% (prior to any R&M)
If I were to calculate my COC before any R&M, it would be 31%. Under that model, I would make my cash back in a shorter amount of time and be able to reinvest it sooner.
I understand your point about having more equity in the house. But I have an 8 week old son, run an SEO consulting business and operate 6 (somewhat) passive income websites. My time is limited. And so is my knowledge of rehabbing a property. Frankly I just don't have the mental capacity nor time right now to manage my first construction job.
For a turn key investment, at these interest rates and being 28 years old, I feel that I have plenty of time to ride out a wave, even if I bought at market price today.
Ultimately, I made the decision to have less equity in the home, buy turn key and target a different clientele.
Maybe I'm naive and I'm missing something here. I'm sure I am :-) But in terms of property #5 vs this property, I see my cash returning to me more quickly, whereas you'll have your property paid off free and clear sooner, giving you more cash flow in a shorter amount of time.
Would I rather that route? Definitely. Especially for my next property.
You're fortunate to have the skills and network to rehab a property in a short amount of time. I need to get there still. Until that point, is it foolish of me to invest in a home that could have 23% COC with these interest rates? My gut says no.
(sorry for the essay lol)