I have three short term rentals very near your place in MN (1 duplex, 1 single family in SW Minneapolis). In my experience, the demand has been very strong and I'm very happy with how it is going. I'm seeing strong demand throughout the year. I think assuming 10 nights per month is not realistic (too low). A general guideline I would use based on your description is 15 to 18 nights in winter and spring, 18 to 20 in summer and fall. When looking at comps for pricing, make sure to look at the calendar or price with specific dates entered. The generic price that shows up on the listing page is typically the minimum price. When doing your analysis, don't forget about additional costs that may not apply to long term rentals (utilities, consumables, addressing maintenance items quickly). I use a cleaning service for turns and do "back-up" myself. I'm looking to move to a few housekeepers that I can pay directly to reduce the overhead associated with the cleaning service.
I've been pretty hands on and focused on keeping my places in tip-top condition with amenities with the goal of five star reviews, higher price point and higher quality guests. Now that I've learned what works and what challenges may come up, my focus is more on developing systems to automate and make management less time intensive. :)
PM me if you want to connect further. We are starting to do co-hosting now as well and would love to chat.