@Hans I'm going to jot some quick replies in here: "I think there are some positive things to come from the federal level with our Congressional delegation/F-35s coming to Fairbanks" Our entire delegation rolled into one wouldn't make one Uncle Ted. Don Young is getting up there, and I shudder to think what will happen when he is gone.
"Trump's plan for infrastructure spending/tax plan/more favorable towards business;"
110% agree except for infrastructure. Infrastructure is a loser for two reasons: 1) maintenance costs in AK are typically addressed by state bonds, and we got down-graded. Probably going to lead to taxes and definitely to debt. 2) the nature of government spending on infrastructure is that government must first extract the funds from the economy through taxation in order to have it in the first place. Government creates NOTHING.
I am looking forward to Trump's tax plan, however and I think that will help the US out but I'm unsure about AK where the majority of people are receiving government checks.
"Oil/gas/mining are what drive Alaska. I work for a trade association that represents over 500 Alaskan businesses, with 30,000 employees that do support work work in the oil/gas/mining industries and our members have laid off 3000 people since late 2014 - these are the highest paying jobs in AK. Our members have over an 80% Alaskan hire. AK Department of Labor numbers put out of state oil workers at about 30% of the oil/gas workforce. Regardless reports now put total job loss statewide at nearly 6000 - between private sector and public sector."
I agree here I just think we missed the boat on LNG, there's no refining, and past high oil prices made cheaper oil elsewhere more attractive as ours is expensive to get. The US rocketed up in domestic oil production while AK oil production declined.
I hope Trump can make changes to make oil (and mining) cheaper and easier here in AK. I'm totally on-board with you that those industries are going to be the most important going forward.
"Hopefully oil prices continue to rise, and our state doesn't change tax policies again that chase off investment. Our state govt. really has to implement a long term fiscal plan to fill the budget gap, that hopefully doesn't involve excessive taxes, so that businesses can plan for the long run."
I think there's plenty of cheap easy oil available in the lower 48 and newer pipelines elsewhere, too. Commodities globally have taken a huge dump in 2016 and I guess I'd say the only place prices can go is up. The largest gains in AK employment were in Providence if I remember correctly. I don't know how that might work into your strategy, but there it is. Overall, 2016 was the first year since the 1980's with a net population loss in AK.
AK is and has been a cyclical RE market. Hopefully we won't repeat 1983 ever again, but being able to identify where we are in that cycle should be apart of every local REI's tool bag. I personally prefer more lineal markets, but I'm not really in the market I'm in for appreciation as much as I am for cash flow.