All Forum Posts by: Scott Innocente

Not all recessions are created equally. They vary in length and depth, but they all have one thing in common: declining economic activity for an extended period of time. It is important to note that, while painful, recessions don't last forever. The typical length of a recession is 11 months which could be looked at as 11 months of opportunity for the shrewd investor.

HOW LONG DO RECESSIONS LAST?

Recessions generally do not last very long. According to Capital Group’s analysis of 10 cycles since 1950, the average length of a recession is 11 months, although they have ranged from eight to 18 months over the period of analysis.

https://www.visualcapitalist.com/recessions-everything-you-need-to-know/?fbclid=IwAR2mZlpqtLtx7WqipTrNAlObmDOfhwzK7d_rqN0EOb9LaYyGd95FhVq-Zgc

Investment Info:

Large multi-family (5+ units) buy & hold investment.

Purchase price: $7,500,000
Cash invested: $3,000,000

58 condo units in North Miami Beach. 5 year hold period. Average COC 11-12%

Now is a good a time as any to own cash flowing rental properties. The housing crisis is well in effect.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/windsor-unemployment-rate-may-1.6484191?fbclid=IwAR3UKKF_syC-9Kqe0UxKAzwQ_Ke-eI3u1cd0YJG8G-SuRQOsvTw4CJM0VHw

MOVE COULD WORSEN HOUSING COSTS, BUILDERS WARN

It's almost as if they're trying to make housing as unaffordable as possible 🤷

https://www.therecord.com/news/waterloo-region/2022/06/08/kitchener-considers-quadrupling-park-fees-for-developers.html?rf&utm_source=facebook&source=waterloo+region+record&utm_medium=SocialMedia&utm_campaign=&utm_campaign_id=&utm_content=

Real estate is increasingly being concentrated in the hands of the wealthy. Hedge funds and pension funds are catching on that single family residential homes are one of the best risk-adjusted assets in the world.

My personal opinion is that home ownership for the average Canadian will be increasingly rare over the coming decades.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jacobwolinsky/2022/06/07/hedge-funds-eye-canadian-real-estate-investments/?sh=1ac2db9e43da

Cities province-wide continue to conduct "studies" in order to try and improve the dire housing situation. The problem is, however, that they never address the slow and cumbersome process of ever getting anything approved.

All of these ideas sounds great in principle, but in general, the government wastes time on study after study but never addresses the true problem: bureaucratic bottlenecks at every single turn.

https://windsorstar.com/news/local-news/housing-review-recommends-city-focus-intensification-promote-infill-and-mixed-use-areas?utm_term=Autofeed&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR0BrxGO6gIzPopM4WPVw6ic1GyzT__QGbprWOn7ZVZwvWDuslr_A8Ld3Bc#Echobox=1654602621

Soccer coming to Windsor?

https://northerntribune.ca/canadian-premier-league-windsor-timeline/

Production of the company's new STLA Large platform will be built in Windsor, with the current models of Chrysler 300, Dodge Charger, and Dodge Challenger at the Brampton plant ending in 2024, when the factory will begin retooling and modernizing toward the company's electric vehicle future.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/windsor/stellantis-car-production-brampton-windsor-ontario-1.6476348#:~:text=At%20the%20Brampton%20Assembly%20Plant,expected%20to%20begin%20in%202025.

The Bank of Canada is hell-bent on raising rates to fight inflation, the problem is, much of the inflation has nothing to do with interest rates. Other factors such as massive fuel price increases (thanks in part to heavy Canadian carbon tax) as well as global wheat shortages, labor shortages, and material shortages, cannot necessarily be fixed with higher rates.

Unfortunately, the feds got it wrong again, underestimated inflation, let it run too long, and are now overcompensating. The market will likey be in an "adjustment period" for months or years as higher rates impact housing affordability.

https://globalnews.ca/news/8883112/bank-of-canada-june-1-decision/