All Forum Posts by: Sam Josh

Over the last 12 years:

1) Demand has gone up 

2) Supply has been slow

3) Rates have been really low

Outcome = Acceleration of home prices nationwide (High demand + low supply + low rates). 

But now its a different world. "demographic demand" will stay strong and supply will stay low while rates are rising. That means while there will be a slowdown, the opportunity for a crash is not imminent. 

@Shiloh Lundahl

Sounds like a very dumb question.

@Jordan Lucas

I give you credit for 3 things. First for having goals, Second, having a smart and bold goal, third, for thinking of all of this at such a young age.

Why should $100m not be possible? Start now and move forward. All the best.

Why is there a popular sentiment that the 2020 recession is just like 2008 where there will be a major housing correction?

First off wasn’t 2008 simply an outcome of poor underwriting and loose lending standards which have since been tightened.

In contrast the 2020 recession is an outcome of a pandemic which is causing economic havoc but homeowners and lenders all seem to be in much better standing now.

So what drives this thinking that home prices are going to crash the same way they did in 2008? Why should there be any correction in the housing market except for investors who are over leveraged and will have to unload properties as rental vacancies rise.

@Marshall Shen

I hope I am wrong as hell but when this is all said and done 2008 will look like a dwarf compared to 2020. The playbooks won’t quite match.

I really don’t see much merit in opening thread after thread to discuss Grant Cardone.

In my book the man had done nothing wrong but cleverly exploited the mindset of a generation of lazy, get rich quick wannabes who all think that “passive investment income” is why they were brought on this earth and lord Cardone will grant them their destiny. We all know as savvy investors that there is nothing such as passive income. Passive income happens because of active investment, deep due diligence, hard negotiation, taking stress and anxiety, making mistakes, pounding the pavement for deals, putting a portion of your savings down and taking risk. There is typically nothing passive here.

The young wannabes don’t quite agree with that “boring strategy”. They don’t even realize that Grant himself is almost 65 years old and it’s taken him a lifetime of trial and error and lots of error to get here and even now he is on the hook to pay back his investors or risk going bankrupt.

I really think Cardone does a masterful job preaching, teaching and taking money from these “investors”. I’d give him credit for that.

Now if everyone was a Wharton/Harvard/Stanford MBA with Wall Street credentials most gurus will be out of work including Grant. But we all know that the world has very few financially savvy people and even fewer men and women who will put in the work to work hard at their investments. Given a choice they would rather sit by the pool and surf on Instagram.

In the end why blame Cardone or Kevin who are trying to make a fast buck preaching or pointing fingers at each other.

@Ty Doke

It’s your money and he only loses if you took your cash and invested it elsewhere. I know BP skews heavily towards Real Estate but as an investor I am diversified across RE, Equities and other assets. In good times they all do amazingly well. So I can’t tell anyone that one is a better investment than another.

@Terry Louwerse

Funny as I was talking to a younger friend who laid out a similar scenario as you and then quickly asked mr how much do I think RE prices will fall in the city of SF by? I asked why, he said he’d love to buy a place in the city as he had been priced out for a really long time. I jokingly told him he was speaking from both sides of his mouth. Fact is as much as people want prices to crater, they also want a piece of the SF RE and life action!! It’s a dream of many a 20 some or 30 some to live and work in super cities like NYC, SF etc, I don’t think that is going away.

My read is people are overestimating the impact of change. I don’t recall much changed a few years in Louisiana post Hurricane Katrina in terms of how people lived or Hurricane Sandy in NJ. I did see things significantly quieten in Paris post the terrorist attacks but in a few months it was back to normal. The Spanish flu technically should have led everyone living in isolated jungles or hills. Nope nothing of that sort happened.

My prediction is once an “all clear” alarm is sounded, life is back to normal in 90 - 180 days.

@Anish Tolia

Guys like Cardone typically don’t appeal to the savvy, well heeled and the wealthy because his “advice” adds nothing incremental and is actually quite misleading.

The big game for these “gurus” is in the young 20 some low income wet behind the ears who think Cardone has a magical key to wealth and success. Cardone does a masterful job of “talking” to them aka “motivating” them. He spews advice like cash is thrash, college is a waste, 401k is like burning money, buying your own home is a cardinal sin etc and in every message all he is asking is to take your money and invest in his syndicate. Heck in some of the messages he is even telling people to kill their 401ks and sell their homes and invest that money in his fund.

The wise and the savvy will find that either disgusting or amusing but certainly not something worth following!! Plus almost every video shows his car, watch collection and the jet. The tone is arrogant, authoritative and very brash.

To the naive investor, the cars represent the “success”, the brashness represents “confidence”. They are not asking the tough questions like how is this all funded, what debt is being carried on the balance sheet, what’s the track record of his investments, why are other fund managers not asking for money on YouTube or why someone like Cardone is not paying his investors.

That job is being left to the other you-tubers like Kevin or others. To me Cardone puts himself out there like a know it all celebrity and then gets the scrutiny a celebrity will get.

@Jason Nguyen

Very common in SF and NYC but typically done as a “rent hack” where the individual rents the home, lives in 1 of the bedrooms and then rents the other 1 - 3 beds for a profit. The principle takes the cash flow risk. I don’t know of these to be very profitable but is doable as long as your landlord knows. The idea is pragmatic but is many light years away from being brilliant or innovative.