So I was playing with some ideas over the weekend on how to accurately evaluate a commercial shell and so far, this is what I came up with:
I can do an analysis on what the building should be producing, based on current market rents in the area, expected expenses and come up with what the NOI should be. Then, I can apply the current CAP rate for the local market and come up with what the building SHOULD be worth. Then, I'd work backwards from that number, subtracting out all the construction expenses to actually build the apartments.
This gets me to a good start but I feel like I'm missing some pieces here.
First off, there is a fully built and rented out comparable building 2 blocks away that is currently for sale. It has been on the market for over a year now so I believe the asking price is too high. While the asking price of that building is a little higher than it should be in my opinion, it isn't too much over what it should be and with the multi-family space being so hot, I'm surprised it hasn't sold. So this is one indicator that despite the decent NOI, the market has not been willing to facilitate an exchange of owners for over a year now. Long story short, I think I need to apply a higher CAP rate to the NOI I came up with on my analysis to get a more accurate (lower) property value once it is built out and rented out. But if the market CAP rate isn't accurate, how to determine the accurate CAP rate to use?
Second, while I have the numbers for how much each apartment would cost to build, my mortgage on the shell would be due each month and I will have 0 income until I can build out and rent at least 1 apartment (assuming the city would be willing to grant me a CO for each apartment completed, instead of making me build out the entire building before issuing me one CO for the whole property) and find renters willing to move in at a discounted rate until the construction is over and they won't have to deal with the daily noise. So I would be paying for construction out of pocket and for the mortgage out of pocket so I believe I need to factor in lost rent due to construction into the price I'm willing to offer for the shell. But how best to calculate that? Should I take the monthly gross rental income for every unit, multiply that by the time it would take to complete the entire project and deduct from my offer price? What if the city is willing to give me individual CO's for each apartment as it completes? Factor that into the price reduction on the offer, even if I can get partial rent from tenants that are willing to deal with construction noise? I'm guessing the answer here is, whatever the seller and I can agree to is how to do it but is there an industry standard for how to do this I can reference?
Are there other costs/lost revenues I need to account for in my analysis before making an offer?