Quote from @Bonnie Low:
Very interesting and thank you for sharing. I ran across this article
https://www.bloomberg.com/news... in Bloomberg news a couple of days ago, basically comparing DSCR loans to the subprime mortgage crisis of the mid-2000s. Their premise is that demand, rates and occupancy - all of which peaked during the pandemic - do not support the income assumptions for these DSCR loans so the banks and buyers are going to be in trouble soon. It's a sweeping generalization, but I don't think they're entirely wrong. It's just unfortunate to see the vacation rental niche taking another shellacking in the news. Average homeowners, government officials and pundits are already looking for scapegoats to blame housing price inflation on and, of course, the vacation home sector is an easy target. I would assume DSCR lenders have taken this into consideration when underwriting the loans, but we've certainly seen that not be the case before. I do think we're going to see some first timers throw in the towel since many hosts report operating on very thin margins which indicates they won't be able to weather the ups and downs. Hopefully people bought smart, have some equity and some reserves. We'll see.
Yes, this article is the talk of the town in the STR financing space. I don't think its too unfair. Our thesis and guiding principle for STR loans at Easy Street Capital is we divide people (borrowers) into two categories: Professional Owners of STRs and everyone else. If you are a professional, i.e. you already own a couple successful STRs, you are dialed in on management, software, cleaning etc, you are knowledgeable and participate in forums like BP and take it serious, we are aggressive on lending and will do these loans all day to help people scale fast. On the other hand, if you are brand new and viewing STRs as a "get rich quick" scheme, we are extremely conservative lending if at all. I think the article is generally on target in that those people will throw in the towel soon but the Pros will keep on thriving and that hopefully other lenders have been taking somewhat similar approaches. We are not even close to a repeat of 2008 when it comes to DSCR loans