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All Forum Posts by: Robert Rixer

Robert Rixer has started 6 posts and replied 342 times.

Post: Lender Declined Loan due to Zoning

Robert RixerPosted
  • Investor
  • Miami, FL
  • Posts 350
  • Votes 260

Others have answered this question well - I will add don't believe a lender when they say "no one will approve you for this". I've been told this so many times by various lenders over the years only to go to another lender and them tell me, yeah no problem. Not saying this will be true in your case, but always question the status quo!

Quote from @V.G Jason:
Quote from @Robert Rixer:

As I'm only truly exposed to my local market, I'm curious what people think is the most undervalued major market at the moment compared to 5 years from now and WHY. 

Keep it to the top 30 major metro markets (Austin is 30th, so nothing smaller), here is the full list. https://www.thoughtco.com/largest-metropolitan-areas-1435135. Providing BP doesn't go out of business, it will be interesting to look back on this in 2029 and see who was right/closest.

Personally, I think it's easy to go with Florida or Texas city, but they appear to already have a lot of the near term appreciation built in to today's prices. I'm going to go with a dark horse and say Minneapolis-St Paul. My reasoning is Midwest cities are often overlooked, downtown hasn't fully recovered from 2020 yet and it quietly has a lot of new construction, expanding suburbs and has major corporate headquarters (Target, Best Buy, 3M).


P.S. I'm a cash-flow investor not a speculator so this is purely academic


 By percent or by absolute value?

Let's do it against June 2029. So 5 years + 3 months. If we have to use that list, that's fine but I feel there are some other bigger-ish metros excluded like Nashville, Raleigh, etc.


Fair points - I am saying percent value.

And sure thing on including Nashville on Nashville and Raleigh. I'm not married to the list, I was more trying to prevent people saying small towns like Fayetteville, NC or Huntsville, AL. Actually surprised Nashville isn't on that list.

Post: Include or exclude Cap rate and DSCR in NOI?

Robert RixerPosted
  • Investor
  • Miami, FL
  • Posts 350
  • Votes 260

CapEx is not included in NOI because it makes the property more valuable which lowers cap rate. If you have an old leaky roof, patching it (maintenance, include in NOI) does not improve the value at all. On the other hand, spending $30k to replace it with a brand new roof, in theory, makes the property $30k more valuable than the same place with the old leaky roof. Therefore its considered more of an asset and not an expense.

Post: Off market big portfolio opportunity

Robert RixerPosted
  • Investor
  • Miami, FL
  • Posts 350
  • Votes 260

Getting a partner is your only option. No bank would finance that much for a first timer who doesn't know what they're doing. I'm of course assuming you don't have $7.5M cash and need a loan..

I had a similar case, a 3-unit on the front part of the lot and a 4-unit at the back - all on one PIN. Went through a similar hot potato with lenders, it ended up being Commercial. The one PIN was the deciding factor. Worth looking into if it would be worth more as split lots sold individually.

Quote from @Eric James:

The cities and states where people are moving. But there may be some changes in that over the next couple years as some hot cities cool down.


Agreed. To add to that, where high income people are moving. But that is generally one in the same as people who move state tend to be of higher income anyway.

Quote from @Jordan Moorhead:

@Robert Rixer what worries me about MSP is rent control, unfriendly business policies and no real large corporate growth. All of their fortune 500 companies seem to have business models that will have trouble sustaining any real growth against new tech. I'm very cautious against states with unfriendly landlord laws.


Yes very fair point. As much as I hate it, the answer could really boil down to politics. Who is going to be in charge at the state and local level and how do they compare to competitor markets.

Quote from @Joshua Christensen:

Robert, this is a great question.  It's is incomplete as we don't know what type of appreciation you are looking for.  Every market has opportunity in the right places with the right deals.

1-4 units follow the market appreciation through sales comps

5+ units you start getting into forced appreciation through NOI approach.

In either case, I'd be looking at markets with a growing population (demand), a shortage of inventory (supply), and a market that has a net positive importing of jobs with wage growth.

As the Fed's a poised to make some moves with interest rates later this year, the question still remains to be seen what they will do with their QE/QT policy on their balance sheet as that will affect long term 1-4 unit rates.  Commercial rates will follow as they lower their overnight rates as SOFR usually tends to follow.  We're already starting see more of the sideline private equity entering the market again which will help rates.

To pick the right market, you need clarity on your strategy. Value Add, Yield, BRRRR, STR, LTR...Every market has something to offer if you look. This question is a bit broad in scope. IMO.

My friend, you're overthinking it. Which market is going to be highest in value in 5 years compared to its value today? That's all I'm asking

As I'm only truly exposed to my local market, I'm curious what people think is the most undervalued major market at the moment compared to 5 years from now and WHY. 

Keep it to the top 30 major metro markets (Austin is 30th, so nothing smaller), here is the full list. https://www.thoughtco.com/largest-metropolitan-areas-1435135. Providing BP doesn't go out of business, it will be interesting to look back on this in 2029 and see who was right/closest.

Personally, I think it's easy to go with Florida or Texas city, but they appear to already have a lot of the near term appreciation built in to today's prices. I'm going to go with a dark horse and say Minneapolis-St Paul. My reasoning is Midwest cities are often overlooked, downtown hasn't fully recovered from 2020 yet and it quietly has a lot of new construction, expanding suburbs and has major corporate headquarters (Target, Best Buy, 3M).


P.S. I'm a cash-flow investor not a speculator so this is purely academic

Insurance varies wildly, especially the past year the industry has been crazy and a very tough market especially for lower end properties and in states such as CA and FL. Best to talk to someone local rather than a national forum.