@John Larson Hey great to see you make your first post on BiggerPockets! Thanks for writing such a detailed response and offering to go over how your team runs the numbers. I understand the low assumptions for vacancy and maintenance, but have 0 for CapEx does seem strange especially if servicing turnkey investors because if I didn't have the time to come to BiggerPockets and network with people, I incorrectly assumed that CapEx was included in maintenance or some other newbie investors may not even know those large future expenses at all; wouldn't it be detrimental for them to assume that and potentially wipe out their cash flow completely in a few years?
DFW looks good still but personally I'll pass on Houston due to the economic signs I've been following. I'd rather invest in a stable market than one that has booming so strongly and has shown warning signs and troubling economic data. The worst place for my personal investing would be to be near the top of a bubble in a local area where my cash flow is minimal, taxes are going up, unavoidable HOA on SFHs that only rise and may come with special assessments, and where the economic numbers are in a troubling trend. Here's the September report from the Federal Reserve for Houston area:
http://www.dallasfed.org/assets/documents/research...
You can see job growth in "leisure and hospitality" aka bartenders/servers, and massive losses in the high paying jobs that are required to sustain SFH price growth. GDP is negative for 2015 as well, oil and gas are getting hit but oil prices are going to continue to slide with the supply/demand inbalance going on daily in the world. Those are just a few data points, don't want to turn this post into a debate about areas as that will get people riled up. There are a lot of BP investors that are in those hot areas that have grown tremendously since our last bottom.
I did a lot more research into the middle of the night and you are right, 6% return is solid for turn-keys it seems. Maybe turnkeys aren't for me then, as my personal investment criteria makes it not worth it without a minimal 10% COCR. I don't want to eat up your time since it seems like turnkeys can only offer those types of returns.
Lastly, I want to say that you and Josh were very professional and I enjoyed speaking with you on the phone. I believe you do have a good reputation and you guys are extremely responsive. I was emailing with Josh late into the night last evening. I know you guys built a good reputation because the Real Wealth Network they are big time and they've vetted you all. Also I will check out the Real Estate Guys radio show and I did see you guys win the award at the conference. I did do some due diligence on your company. It is hard to find references online for you guys though through google, it's good that you won at that conference or very little does show up online. I personally would work with your team based on your professionalism and how you've handled this inquiry. It's probably hard to find good COCR as a turnkey now that DFW / Houston have appreciated so much.
Enjoy your weekend! I think your company is great, I'm just doing some due diligence as I am indeed a newbie investor and I'm trying to pick up my first properties so I can't make a big mistake. I've listened to Kathy's talks and even attended one in person, and I know the importance of timing and not getting caught up near a top. Apologies if I seem too risk averse in needing $150-$200 set aside for CapEx as I would like to be a buy and hold-forever type.