All Forum Posts by: Rami Aweti

Thanks @Jon Huber I'll definitely seek out everything I can. I'm pretty motivated :)

Thanks for the warm response!

@Robert Warren I completely agree about the way everything gets factored into the price. My only concern is when that will begin to happen in areas effected by climate change.

@Steve B. I really appreciate your thorough response. Perhaps the jury is still out on the long-term effects of climate change/global warming but I don't like what I see and states in the Southwest including California do appear to be at great risk in the long-term if the climate continues to heat up. Nevertheless, the Bay Area market is unsustainable for other reasons and purchase price to salary rates and growth demographics is a huge consideration for me as well. The next destination is on everyone's mind over here...and while I have deep roots and the potential to continue expanding into relatively nearby markets, I can't help but think Portland has a great working template for the next destination. The San Francisco I was born and raised in is no longer the place it used to be and Portland offers something I miss about this place. All numbers aside, it offers a nostalgic quality for me that I appreciate! 

Thanks again!

I'll try to connect with Mike Nuss.

The Bay Area market still has some potential in outlying areas like Vallejo and parts of Sacramento...but still falls short of the 1% rule until you move to multi-families and I imagine the neighborhoods will be a little borderline for most people in the country.

Vallejo-

SFR-$200,000 and up----Rent-$1400-1500

Sacramento

SFR-$160,000 and up----Rent $1200-1300

@Jeff S.   and @Zach Davis   I would love to connect with you guys about property in the Portland area! I've lived my whole life here in San Francisco and the numbers are depressing. I fell in love with Portland on a recent trip and see so much potential up there for a variety of reasons. I'm planning another exploratory trip in the next month :)

@Chad Benedict Thanks for the detailed response! 

This information was extremely helpful. Sometimes we need confirmation of what we intuitively already see and your response addressed that for me :)

I appreciate that we see eye to eye about the long-term effects of climate change. While it is very likely that it will take 50 years before we find ourselves in the depths of climate change woes, I can't help but think the market will begin pricing in these factors decades in advance. After all, speculation is a huge driving force for pricing even if the fundamentals have yet to fully emerge. As for when the reality sinks in that the Southwest and large parts of California are truly unsustainable occurs is anyone's guess. I tend to think it will happen in the 2020's (as we are already beginning to hear talk in the Bay Area of increased water bills, restrictions on water usage, etc. here). 

The theory of the tipping point comes to mind when I examine real estate investments. While it is nice to focus on short-term investments where the numbers currently make sense, I do dream of finding that next place with all the right elements to attract people in mass. For example, San Francisco has always been a nice place to live for a variety of reasons, but we reached a tipping point in the last 5 years that changed the game very quickly...

Nonetheless, your advice to focus on the shorter term is well warranted and there is no use in missing the immediate gains I could see in my immediate area. Perhaps I can find a happy medium place. Do you have any thoughts on out of state investments? 

I am convinced that I will reach Portland eventually...even if it works out as just a great place to live!

Thanks again!

Rami

@Ron Drake Thanks for the response. My only concern is investors tend to be way ahead of the curve on these things. Once it becomes clear that our way of life will indeed be impacted, this will begin to factor into prices (i.e. speculation). It's not clear when the reality that our way of life will really sink in but I would like to be proactive!

@Brett Synicky

Thanks for the welcome!

I'll definitely check out the link :)

Hello everyone,

I'm a teacher by trade and small time investor in San Francisco. I've been looking for my next deal in the bay area, and while there have been some that might meet the 1% rule at best, I can't get my mind off one thing...the weather patterns in the State. 

The drought does not look to be getting any better and states all across the southwest are simply unsustainable. I think I may be on to something. Do you think we may witness an exodus to the Pacific northwest in the next decade? Am I being a little hasty? 

I'm seriously considering making my next purchase in the Portland area as a happy medium. I know for a small time investor an out of state investment may be too much. I'd love to hear your thoughts about the out of state piece and any general feedback about the Portland area. I've been reading some good things about the Hillsboro area.

Rami

Hello Everyone,

It's never easy to get my point out in one message. I'm hoping to get a conversation going and take it from there. First of all, I'm obsessed with real estate. I take it I am in the right place for that. Born and raised in San Francisco, I've witnessed tremendous wealth created around me and I've always been intrigued. I wasn't ready to jump in until 2005 and by then the market was absolutely crazy! A little depressed by the circumstances around me, I continued to save and finish my studies to become a teacher (my second passion). I got my first job in the fall of 2008 and then I witnessed the country collapse before my eyes. 

Understanding the underlying fundamentals of this region, I entered the market with laser like intention. I even brought my parents into the market and helped them purchase a property and then turned around and started looking for myself. Having seen so many people priced out of this region, I was determined to not let myself become a victim of circumstance. I would not stick my head in the sand. My career as a teacher offered some stability, prices around me were very accessible, and I had been saving since 2005. It was a classic example of "opportunity coming to the prepared mind." 

I made my first purchase 2 years later and now I am sitting on some great equity, reasonable cash flow, and cash in hand from a recent line of credit. I'm looking for my next deal. My only problem, the market is not the same anymore. I know timing was on my side the first time but I have to believe that creativity and diligence will lead me to the next great deal. Hence, I found the Portland area. I know investing out of state may be crazy but I have some line of reasoning and I would love to pick the brain of biggerpocket members if you are interested. The logic trail is primarily based in the weather. The water situation here in California is unsustainable and I don't think it will be getting better. I'd love to chat with other members about the Portland area and hear from those think my trail of logic is well founded.

Sorry about my long winded introduction. I tend to get excited :)

Rami

Hello Everyone,

I'm a relatively new investor and ready for my next deal. After reading through various forums, I find myself very excited about the prospects of engaging with like minded individuals. I made my first deal a couple years back (2012) in what may have been one of the best times to buy...and it certainly meets the 1% rule. With solid equity in place, a relatively strong cash flow position, and cash in hand, I'm ready for more. 

My only dilemna is my first purchase is hard to replicate. The bay area market is obviously not a great place to cash flow in my budget range and now I'm seriously considering going out of state.  I fell in love with Portland on a recent trip and see great potential for the future. Portland also kind of reminds of San Francisco before it went crazy in the last two decades... 

There are two driving forces for my desire to leave the state of California for my next investment. 

Primarily, and I'm hoping I can hear your feedback on this, the weather. As the earth continues to warm, I am anticipating that the drought in California will not be getting any better. Born and raised in San Francisco, we used to have real winters! I'm afraid that these conditions will not get better and all the Southwestern States will have to come to terms with the reality that they are unsustainable and eventually pack up and leave. My guess is they will have an exodus to the Pacific Northwest. I'm not sure when that will happen but Portland seems like a happy medium for me. I'd love to hear your comments.

Second, I see huge room for growth. I've been reading up on the Hillsboro area. If anyone has feedback on this area and the future prospects I would love to pick your brain.

Sorry for my long winded introduction. I'm hoping to connect. Let's talk!

Rami