All Forum Posts by: Rami Aweti

@Chris Music Thanks! But, you don't think I can find the best of both worlds? 

Hello Everyone,

I've been looking at rental properties in Vallejo and Sacramento for over 6 months now and can't make a decision. Where do you think makes the most sense for the long-term?

In Vallejo, I can get a small single family home that would pay for itself and maybe cash flow a bit. In Sacramento, cash flow seems more likely as I can get more home for my money (and possibly a duplex). Vallejo seems better positioned to catch appreciation with its close proximity to the Bay Area market. I am cautious about Sacramento because I know the underlying land is not that expensive and any property I purchase is susceptible to being undercut by developers. This is my dilemna. I would love some clarity!

@Eric Giovannucci Thanks!

This information is very encouraging. I have no doubt that Antioch has underlying potential. I'm really not that interested in section 8 rentals but I won't completely shut the door on this possibility. I'd like to see potential for growth through good paying jobs and overall development in the region. Antioch deserves that much! 

@Jordan Sizelove I'd say welcome to the forum but you have a bit more seniority than me! I'm just getting started on biggerpockets and love the warm reception I have received. One question comes to mind, what do you think about Antioch as a buy and hold option? I've pretty much exhausted all my options on cash flowing in the bay area market. Fix and flips are an option but I want to be sure I've examined all the possibilities. Do you see some growth in the area? I would like to purchase something near the 200 range and rent it so it can basically cover my mortgage and expenses. Love to hear any advice you can spare on this one!

Thanks.

Rami

@Account Closed Thanks for the response. While I'm not sure what you meant by Chicken Little (lol), I do think the large run up in prices happened in the last two decades. While it is all relative, people from the Bay Area viewed property prices as more or less flat until the 90's. I am sure there were notable increases that rank high among other regions in the nation, but things didn't really get out of control until the late 90's to early 2000's and we are not going back to those days (short of some serious changes). 

@Jordan Thibodeau Thank you!

This was a well thought out response. In terms of the market pricing in drought, I think we see eye to eye. The market is very short-term. Developers and government officials work on shorter time frames than the masses and inevitably pass the buck to the not so distant future. This is assumed in my argument. There will be a time when the public realizes that government can't solve our problem of water. I don't think people have fully wrapped their head around that reality.

I sincerely do hope our region can adapt to the challenges of water. But, that is assuming that there are viable solutions available. Of course, we are far from becoming the Sahara dessert. But, I am left with a great sense of uncertainty about the sustainability of this area for those living here and as a deterrent for future growth in the area. Nevertheless, even if this place becomes a less favorable destination for transplants, we do have a population that will need to expand with natural growth and that will sustain real estate prices for a while. Perhaps my problem is something a little longer term and may not be worth reading into now. Nonetheless, I am interested in finding that next place that has all the elements for growth but has not taken off. The Portland area seems to fit this description though it has been a bit overheated.

I've been looking in Sacramento on and off for a couple years. I was super close to buying a few times but found myself back in the immediate bay area. Something seems to be missing from the area. It is not quite taking off the way I anticipate. There are developments coming down the pipeline and there are very interesting pockets. But, the region as a whole seems to be weighed down by poor job growth. Do you see something better on the horizon? What do you think about West Sacramento?

Thanks again!

Rami

@Robert Warren 

Thanks for your response. My apologies for slipping off the radar for a couple weeks. I got side swiped by a turbulent holiday period. 

I'm very curious about this natural variability we are experiencing. If the suns variability cannot be assumed to be constant, then what are we using to measure the correlation it is having with the Maunder period 400 years ago? Don't we have any means of gauging where global temperatures are heading for the next few decades?

You say that what is affected is already priced in but I am a little skeptical because I believe there is a lag time for our collective awareness to grasp the depths of an issue like global warming and the real implications. Perhaps I am putting too much weight into this global warming thing because the state of California has clearly been an unsustainable place for a long time but that has not stopped prices from getting out of control the last two decades! Do you see a tipping point where this unsustainable area is finally realized as unsustainable (in my lifetime) and people move in mass or does the science indicate that this cycle we are experiencing will take a lot longer for me to worry about anything?

Thanks again Robert!

Rami

@Jeff S. 

 Sorry about the late response. I'm not sure about getting on the board at this stage but I am interested in learning more! I'm still wrapping my head around what makes the most sense in a property for the long-term. While it is frowned upon by many, I am factoring appreciation into my decision and I know that single family homes have the best potential. Plus, I can renovate the first time around if I plan my purchase correctly and come up there over the summer. This is very ambitious but it underscores my hopes for Portland :)

Thanks again!

Thanks @Jeff S. 

I appreciate the response! Do you think the numbers would work for a condo? I'm out of state and would love to minimize the maintenance.

Thanks @Zach Davis  While the numbers may appear the same, I'm motivated by Portland for a variety of reasons that the current numbers may not reflect. I'd love to connect!