All Forum Posts by: Albert Hasson

Quote from @John Morgan:

I go to a lot of RE meetups and people in my area aren't getting in due to the numbers not working. Primary home buyers are snagging houses that won't cash flow for us with the current interest rates. So investors have been sidelined waiting for either home prices or interest rates to drop. So new and experienced investors in my area are waiting it out. I'm not sure if that's going to happen if interest rates fall due to low inventory and high demand already. I've been able to buy 7 decent cash flowing SFR in the last 10 months so I'll buy something if it falls in my lap. Otherwise, I'll stay on the sidelines and wait like most investors during these times of high prices and interest rates.

I guess the right question would be:

if unemployment hit 4.5 next year as indicated by Fed , can home price appreciation exceed inflation rate of 4 percent ? 

Because if not then we are all losing money next year.

Believe any the government states at your own peril. Every aspect of the economy is manipulated and by redefining how any statistic is calculated, you can make the data show anything you want...and they most certainly do just that. 

Quote from @Albert Hasson:

Quote from @Christie Gahan:

But, I'm good. Right?

Lots of data points being talked about here.  I want to redirect to the ideal that real estate is based on local markets.  Lots of CHIPS money coming to my backyard.  This means jobs. This means increased need for housing. This means I'm in buy mode ( for properties that cash flow with a fix rate.)  So, I'm good. Right?

Same situation here in AZ. TSMC announced expansion of already massive plants being built in our Phoenix. Now the suppliers to TSMC are announcing factories in the same area which along with all the new battery manufacturers south of Phoenix are bringing a revolution to the Phoenix economy. All due to CHIPS and IRA.

This makes me smile :)

Intel/AMD/META/Google/Amazon/Microsoft/Apple at 2023 actually having  minus 1 to 2% YOY growth of Gross Profit this year.

In previous 5 years they are all have double digit YoY Gross Profit Earning LOL so 2023 is actually the WORST year if we see from financial perspective only.
 
In other word, all companies had not received order this year, in all sector. That's why they have to layoff to reduce CAPEX.
We will see in 2024.

Quote from @Albert Hasson:

Quote from @Account Closed:

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Aaron Gordy:

@Carlos Ptriawan uummm the unemployment numbers are getting lower month over month.... yoy it has gone up from 2.84% to 3.34%. Let's be real though: 3.34% is crazy low! Its very very tough to find good help around here. I am in the process of hiring a finance professional to help as my development business grows. Indeed sent me 55 folks. Every one of the folks that I reached out to were unhappy with their current positions and were looking to move around. Only one person was unemployed but that was by choice. All were sharp. Its a scramble. I found one that is a great fit, thank goodness! This posting about WARN from the fed is interesting though. But from my boots on the ground experience its not easy getting good help. Austin metro is a job creating machine. Is the sky falling? Nope. 

 Unemployment is still not as strong as it would had we never had the pandemic. 

Give it 20/30 years, this will be a historic time future generations look back on and ask "why were they so DUMB back then". 

Or is it corrupt? Just sayin . . .

 Wow!  Lots of paranoid people on BP.  Inflation and unemployment numbers cooked??  Where’s the evidence?  It’s obvious inflation is coming down( gas prices and rent prices come to mind) and it’s obvious that anybody who wants a job can get one.  I just don’t understand the paranoid sky is falling mindset.  The economy historically speaking is very good right now.  Nobody can argue that. Maybe some of you don’t remember the last big recession late 2000’s.  Now that economy sucked!! Unemployment through the roof, millions losing their homes.  Contrast that to today where unemployment low, GDP robust, inflation retreating, stock market at historic highs, home prices steady, 10’s of millions of people with mortgage under 4% with loads of home equity.  It doesn’t get a whole lot better than this folks.

You're buying what the whitehousegov docs are pushing aren't you?

It's not all doom & gloom, we're just stating it's a lot of misrepresentation. I would say the market is great, honestly phenomenal. The economy is not. The locked in home equity, inflation #, GDP print, unemployment number all appear great until you look under the hood. The basics still stand the economy is in incredibly low savings, extremely high debt, and the most underlying and impactful signal has fully priced in a drop-- oil. Those facts sing a lot more truth about the economy than the curated numbers the whitehouse has decided to shape for inflation and unemployment. GDP was very strong, that is true, but let's see where it goes. 

We are in a precarious time, but we're nowhere near the GR type. That's not the sentiment we're pushing, just stating it isn't as rosy as people think. 

But, I'm good. Right?

Lots of data points being talked about here.  I want to redirect to the ideal that real estate is based on local markets.  Lots of CHIPS money coming to my backyard.  This means jobs. This means increased need for housing. This means I'm in buy mode ( for properties that cash flow with a fix rate.)  So, I'm good. Right?

Quote from @James Hamling:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Aaron Gordy:

@Carlos Ptriawan uummm the unemployment numbers are getting lower month over month.... yoy it has gone up from 2.84% to 3.34%. Let's be real though: 3.34% is crazy low! Its very very tough to find good help around here. I am in the process of hiring a finance professional to help as my development business grows. Indeed sent me 55 folks. Every one of the folks that I reached out to were unhappy with their current positions and were looking to move around. Only one person was unemployed but that was by choice. All were sharp. Its a scramble. I found one that is a great fit, thank goodness! This posting about WARN from the fed is interesting though. But from my boots on the ground experience its not easy getting good help. Austin metro is a job creating machine. Is the sky falling? Nope. 

 Unemployment is still not as strong as it would had we never had the pandemic. 

Give it 20/30 years, this will be a historic time future generations look back on and ask "why were they so DUMB back then". 

Or is it corrupt? Just sayin . . .

 I don’t know a lot I’m a simpleton. Here is what thoughts are. We live in a society that does value work. From the top down there is encouragement not to work. Culture has dictated less work more money. This is a recipe for disaster. At my shop we just went through a union contract. The new hires wanted the whole world given to them and they loathe seniority. This also goes in the public sector. We have an administration that has encouraged people not to work. The labor shortage is very real. This causes not as much to be produced and what is being produced is more expensive because of labor cost. 

A short while ago I bought gas for 1.60 and a family pack of chicken thighs were 4.00. So I could go to work and eat dinner for 5.60. Today it’s 3.00$ gallon and 8 dollars for thighs. Same trip 11.00$ yes it’s doubled. Ground beef was 1.75/ 2.00 lbs. now it’s 6.00+ a lot. A 2x4 is 3$ plus used to 1.66$. This is true inflation forget all the metrics. That is just accounting. Most Americans are paying twice what they used to pay for stuff. Rent is through the roof. The cost to borrow money to invest is insane. Look at the price of a new truck compared to 5 years ago. Co pays at the hospital is higher. My work insurance is about to go up 25%. A few years ago I could go to McDonald’s get a double cheeseburger and a medium chocolate shake3.50 now it’s 8$ and it takes twice as long to get it

Quote from @Albert Hasson:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Matthew Crivelli:

Every mainstream prediction has been wrong in the last few years. First we had transitory inflation in 2021, then we were told growth will slow in 2022, then we had a 100% probability of a recession in 2023, now we are being told that we are going to see a soft landing and the fed is going to drop rates. lol it's like opposite day around here with these predictions. 

A few things to note - the treasury yields are still inverted, government spending is still out of control, the consumer is being squeezed with debt payments, student loans, cost of living hikes, and inflation is above the target goal. Oh and not to mention we haven't seen a recession in 15 years. 

I'm taking the experts opinion with a grain of salt and articles like this are laughable....

This.

Basically, anything that the experts are predicting, etc., take with a grain of salt. If anything, assume completely different. People expected a hard landing in 2023; therefore there was no hard landing because companies got in front of it. Basically, where we think it'll go in 3-6 months we are preparing for now. And due to that behavior it keeps kicking that can down the road. The market is going to expect to Fed to pivot & price that, then the Fed will hold on to pivot a bit too late and will have to be more drastic with it.

Once people realize the initial, inconsequential fed .25bps pivot is completely useless we will probably bleed and force to redirect course aggressively. I fully expect a hard, but shallow and quick, landing after the initial pivot. 

 ya and when the inverted curve is being normalized, say 30y is higher than 2y then that's the sign that recession and stock market crash is always happening hahaha ;-) it's very counter intuitive, we are in similar time to where bear stearns being wiped out in 2008

thing is , we are at the longest inverted curve ever for the last 30 years so chance are actually higher, but since everyone is waiting for that, it may happen (or not) lol

one thing for sure is we have more layoffs in 2024 and that would impact physiologically speaking how investor put their money moving forward.

Layoffs + still very high cost of capital. I mean .25bps isn't changing your rate to borrow money, it's still way too high to function. I'm progressively buying more debt and locking this in. If people think this investment rate is sustainable, then I don't know where they are living. Look around, people are getting trimmed. Everything is getting way too unaffordable and everyone is struggling.

 And yet consumer and discretionary spending is robust with record breaking travel over the holiday’s and the stock market at record highs.  The popular narrative is that “everyone is struggling” but that’s just not the case.  The poor are struggling but they always struggle.

The economy is remarkably strong and people are confident enough in their jobs and their financial situation to spend like crazy.  

 The spending is high because the underlying products are costlier. It's an absolute value metric-- so sure it'll always be higher because guess what? Everything costs more.  The only way spending wouldn't be ridiculously high is if we had deflation. 

Just because spending is high for an absolute value doesn't mean it's strong. Such a misleading way to view it. People are absolutely struggling, the absolute rich are skewing this metric. The market is absolutely robust and strong; the economy is not. 

Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

Quote from @V.G Jason:

Quote from @Matthew Crivelli:

Every mainstream prediction has been wrong in the last few years. First we had transitory inflation in 2021, then we were told growth will slow in 2022, then we had a 100% probability of a recession in 2023, now we are being told that we are going to see a soft landing and the fed is going to drop rates. lol it's like opposite day around here with these predictions. 

A few things to note - the treasury yields are still inverted, government spending is still out of control, the consumer is being squeezed with debt payments, student loans, cost of living hikes, and inflation is above the target goal. Oh and not to mention we haven't seen a recession in 15 years. 

I'm taking the experts opinion with a grain of salt and articles like this are laughable....

This.

Basically, anything that the experts are predicting, etc., take with a grain of salt. If anything, assume completely different. People expected a hard landing in 2023; therefore there was no hard landing because companies got in front of it. Basically, where we think it'll go in 3-6 months we are preparing for now. And due to that behavior it keeps kicking that can down the road. The market is going to expect to Fed to pivot & price that, then the Fed will hold on to pivot a bit too late and will have to be more drastic with it.

Once people realize the initial, inconsequential fed .25bps pivot is completely useless we will probably bleed and force to redirect course aggressively. I fully expect a hard, but shallow and quick, landing after the initial pivot. 

 ya and when the inverted curve is being normalized, say 30y is higher than 2y then that's the sign that recession and stock market crash is always happening hahaha ;-) it's very counter intuitive, we are in similar time to where bear stearns being wiped out in 2008

thing is , we are at the longest inverted curve ever for the last 30 years so chance are actually higher, but since everyone is waiting for that, it may happen (or not) lol

one thing for sure is we have more layoffs in 2024 and that would impact physiologically speaking how investor put their money moving forward.

Layoffs + still very high cost of capital. I mean .25bps isn't changing your rate to borrow money, it's still way too high to function. I'm progressively buying more debt and locking this in. If people think this investment rate is sustainable, then I don't know where they are living. Look around, people are getting trimmed. Everything is getting way too unaffordable and everyone is struggling.

Quote from @Kristi K.:

Quote from @Albert Hasson:

 Inflation is always counted YoY with long term trend between 3 to 5%. 

It just means The YoY in 2023 is declining compare to YoY in 2022.
Of course it's still high because your wage doesn't grow as fast as inflation and in reality actual price is still up.

Hope you don't understand the concept.

The only way for individual to go againts inflation is having primary that has no mortgage or you don't pay anything for housing..

also in reality, inflation just means a devaluation of currency, price is not going up, but your dollar value declines, againts material and labour.....