All Forum Posts by: Hersh M.

Background: The economy is on a tear, but trees don't grow to the sky.  At some point, it will over-extend and go into recession when financial commitments default.

Last time, the trigger was a default on home mortgages.

It doesn't look like that is a major risk area currently.  However, there is going to be something.

My theory - I think that commercial debt from companies in the retail sector is a major weak point for the economy.  When the financially troubled big box retailers start defaulting on their debt service payments, I see the potential for a causal chain that spreads out to the broader economy.  (Not nearly as severe as 2008, but will definitely result in lots of vacant commercial property and much higher risk premiums for bank lending)

What do you think it will be?

Does anyone for see another housing crisis like what we had back in 2007. I heard economist Harry Dent speak on this about 3 years ago in Atlanta. He predicted a housing market crash sometime between 2016-2019. 

Let me know your thoughts.

well I just need it to last 45 more days before it crash's.. we sold 3 new constructions today all in one day 1.5 million worth and 17 homes or about 8 million worth since Jan 1.. out of 23 in one subdivision so just need 45 days to sell the last 6..  then well who knows the crash can start then.

Hi, my w2 moves me to Austin TX. I've searched zillow for investment as well as primary house. The market looks VERY tight. I will be brining in around 1.6 mil to the city. I wonder what areas do you advise to invest in. Also I noticed around 30% property increase from 2014. This does not seem to happen in Chicago area where I am coming from. Anyone can explain why? Do you advise multifamily or single family? How about luxury condos in downtown? It feels my pocket is tiny comparing with the price tag. Any news on amazon headquarters? 

I was reading an article on another investing website that broke down the best and worst performers in the S&P 500 so far this year. The list of the 35 worst performers had a whopping 13 that were REITs. Not all of the REITs are in the same market. What does this mean to the Real Estate industry as a whole?

A couple of scary charts below (article link also included).  I can't predict market cycles.  For now, I am just attempting to stick with properties that cash flow in changing market conditions.

https://wolfstreet.com/2018/01/15/commercial-real-...

Buying well positioned value add cash flowing assets will be your best hedge against the next bust. The charts only show a small portion of history, but from what I have studied on cycles we are due for a small correction like in 2002 with a major boom to follow - if you believe that history repeats. 

You really need to look at why markets go bust and what this market has in common with the other times we have crashed.