All Forum Posts by: Phil Wells

@Phil Wells - my wife and I have been discussing this quite a bit lately. We're NYC residents, but we also live on a farm that's somewhat commutable to NYC. Lately, we've spent all our time on the farm. But- I can tell you with certainty that people will move out of cities. I can tell you with equal certainty that other people(and sometimes the same people!) will move back into cities. 

The trend toward urbanization(I'm defining that trend as the rate of population increase of the cities being greater than the rate of population increase of rural areas) has persisted for at least a century, and likely many centuries. COVID-19 may cause a hiccup in that trend, but what about when there's a vaccine? Or when the world has some measure of herd immunity? Or when there's an effective treatment? One or all of these things will happen, and then COVID will recede into our collective memories.

If you're focused on near-term questions, my top question is whether we'll have a recession or a depression. Oddly, I've noticed housing demand has remained quite robust, as has demand for equities(as evidenced by reasonably strong stock prices.) From those data points alone, it appears to me that the typical investor is more sanguine about the future than I am. Though I have moderate levels of concern, I find others' lack of concern reassuring. I wonder if I'm wrong to trust in the wisdom of crowds?

MG 

@Phil Wells 
I think its possible that people will have new options post COVID. Some of the cities being hit the hardest will likely have similar damage done to their local economies. Local taxes don't get paid and politicians can't balance a budget when the good times are rolling so my estimate is that taxes in these places will go up. 
Similar to @Daniel Boruch I think this will accelerate trends that are already in motion. 
I dont think people will flea to rural towns but the secondary and tertiary markets will be the winners. 

my 2 cents is that urban sprawl will increase as people are willing to make longer commutes since they can work from home more often. I also believe it will lead to a population increase in '2nd Tier' cities - Salt Lake City, Boise, Portland etc. We've seen a 9%-10% reduction in rents in cities such as Seattle and San Francisco.

Obviously, that's Manhattan.

Where are people going to move?

HERE:

The above is Ditmas Park...... BROOKLYN. Just about 20 to 30 minutes away from the City but extremely low density.

If you think about it, most BIG Cities offer more than just a bunch of high rise apts.

It's also interesting that one of those larger apts in Manhattan may be more expensive than one of these beautiful Victorian or Queen Anne homes here in Brooklyn.

I'm not sure about other Cities, but NYC has just about every kind of neighborhood you want.

I personally believe that there won't necessarily be a large NET migration out but there will be a demographics shift.

Older people and more vulnerable people, especially with families, will want to move to a lower density neighborhood rather than higher density neighborhoods. Just imagine you ride in an elevator and someone sneezes.... opps... you have just been exposed and you could not social distance.

Younger people, especially single, ambitious and professional, will choose a City Life Style over Cow Towns.

When you are a young workaholic earning a substantial salary, even when WFH, you still want your Gym, Restaurants, Parks, Bars and Clubs very close. Really, you don't want to drive. You just don't have the time to do that.

My feelings is that the Demographics will shift and places like Manhattan will become a lot younger. Younger people feel a lot more invincible than their older counterparts.

Places like Ditmas Park, Brooklyn, will get older and more mature established professionals.

Same City, just different Neighborhoods.

 You are aware of online schooling? This entire covid event has also been a major catalyst pushing universities to more embrace online schooling, and without doubt the added revenue potentials from erasing geographic obstacles and classroom constraints has not missed there attention either, including that of Harvard. 

Absolutely, folks will start looking out of getting high-density urban spots into suburbs or even rural spaces. 

Work from home- need more space- Twitter, Facebook, Google employees. Zoom!

Learn from home- need more space- families with kids need space

Safety and elevators- don't want to be in that space

Mass city transit and density- don't want to be in that space

Crime- more safety outside of the city

Outdoor space for gardening-  lots of urban gardeners now almost overnight. 

Tons of reasons these are just a few. Interestingly I saw a recent post on youtube with Ryan Moran and @Jason Hartman about The Migration into Suburban Living. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YwBNhEgYH0I

Ryan mentioned it was cheaper to own a 25 acre ranch not to far from downtown and it would still be cheaper than a small apartment in downtown.

Tons of other articles have been popping up even before Redin. Do a quick Google search (in the news section) "migration to suburbs" tons of stuff comes up. 

Our brokerage in northern NJ has been receiving a lot of buyer interest from folks looking to move out of the NYC area to the suburbs in central and northern NJ, where the commute is within 1 hour.  However, I don't have data or statistics (and haven't seen any reports elsewhere) to show how much is simply pent up demand vs a shift a major shift in behavior.   My market has always had a demand from people moving out of the cities in the NY metro region, but time will tell if this is a major change for the long term. 

@Phil Wells Not so sure, man. They have always been expensive relative to the rest of the US cities for a very long time predating tech. But only time will tell though. 

@Phil Wells

People are working remotely because of Covid. When Covid goes away that trend will weaken significantly and most of humanity will go back to working and living the old fashioned way and cities will continue to grow.

9-11 did not kill New York - although I know in the early day’s post the attacks there were a lot of articles about how NYC will empty out.

Terrorist strikes in London and Paris did not push people out or wipe those cities down. Initially people got cautious and then life was back to your old ways. For every guy sitting in small or middle size town thinking mega cities are finished, there are 100k youngsters all over the world who are looking to move into these big cities down the road.

I think there will be migration out but in due course there will be more people who will move in.