My thoughts on this:
- I wouldnt look at the cost savings over 30 years. Very few mortgages last 30 years before they are paid off or refinanced. 5-7 years is the average life of a mortgage right now, and 10 years isnt unrealistic. Cost savings over 30 years is irrelevant as it's unlikely to materialize.
- No one knows what will happen in the future. The ten year yield dropped into the high 3's yesterday on a mix of optimism, Powell's commentary at Wednesday's meeting, and a particularly ugly jobs report yesterday morning. That being said, even if the ten yr yield stayed high 3's, the FFR would need to be cut by 175 bps just to normalize the yield curve. For mortgage rates to come down significantly more than where we are this morning, the ten year would need to come down even more, meaning at least 250-300bps in cuts in the FFR to normalize the curve. Markets are forward looking and price-in expectations, so much of what youre seeing right now is the bond market behaving in line with a guaranteed Fed pivot in Sept and major rate cuts over the next two years. If we dont get an FFR cut in Sept, I suspect the reaction will not be pretty. We saw this once already in the past twelve months and bond yields and mortgage rates climbed rapidly in a few weeks.
- A lot of your decision will come down to your personal risk tolerance. Are you more inclined to speculate that rates will fall lower (they should, I think they are likely to, but they may not) and you can refi, or would you rather pay a fee/premium to lock in where you're at now and hedge your risk of not being able to refi into a lower rate?
If you're confident that you'll be able to obtain a lower rate in 6-18 months as rates fall, opt for the smallest prepayment and points option that you can find. If you're worried that may not happen, consider any points you pay to be like an insurance premium - it's the $ cost of making sure that you're rate is never above whatever rate you close at, no matter what happens in the market.
- Lastly, in you qualify for Conventional, it's almost always a better deal than a comparable DSCR loan. I love DSCR loans as much as the next lender, but the convenience they offer tends to come a premium. Just my $0.02.