Initial jobless claims just posted higher than estimates. The economy and consumer is no where near the same as when rates were 15% in the 70s/80s. The debt levels are substantially different, wages, wealth imbalances. Grain markets 20-37% off their recent highs. SPY 20% off highs. Lumber 37% off highs. Crude 20% off the highs. Bitcoin 70% off it's highs.
Student loans haven't been getting paid.
Real estate has plenty of room to come down when mortgage rates jump 100% and people are only dropping 5% off list. STR market adds inventory (less travel, overbought, etc), 2nd homes adds inventory, foreclosures add inventory as people look for ways to generate cash or reduce leverage/risk. New builds isn't the only source of inventory.
AMAZON.COM is trading at it's pre-covid price. If you don't think house prices can come back near 2019-2020 levels???
Just because rates "come down" lets say back to 5.5% v 6% in the near term, doesn't mean people can afford to pay the high price of a house when their money has been inflated away, their income is gone due to job loss etc.
Gas prices going from $5.00 to $4.50 isn't generating economic activity and additional spending, and certainly your typical homebuyer today isn't saying "gas dropped .50 and mortgage rates went from 6% to 5.5%, i think i'll go buy that house that's been sitting for 20 days 100k over what it sold for in 2019."
Are housing values supported by low inventory in the long run, yes. however I believe it's reasonable to say that if the median home price per FRED is 428k (rounded Q1 2022) a 20% drop back near the Q3-Q4 2020 pricing 350k area is certainly reasonable.
