Market Crash ?? Not Yet, But it sure has slowed down - Stats

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Metro-Level Summary: June 2022 from Redfin 

The table below measures pending sales that fell out of contract as a percentage of overall pending sales, and is sorted from highest to lowest. A metro must have had at least 1,000 pending-home sales in June 2022 to be included.

U.S. Metro Area	Pending Sales that Fell Out of Contract as % of Overall Pending Sales

Las Vegas, NV	27.2%
Lakeland, FL	26.7%
Cape Coral, FL	25.7%
Port St. Lucie, FL	25.7%
Jacksonville, FL	25.3%
New Orleans, LA	25.3%
Palm Bay, FL	24.9%
Orlando, FL	24.5%
Phoenix, AZ	24.5%
Crestview, FL	23.5%
Deltona, FL	23.1%
Tampa, FL	23.0%
Houston, TX	22.9%
Salt Lake City, UT	22.4%
Baton Rouge, LA	22.2%
West Palm Beach, FL	22.1%
Atlanta, GA	22.0%
Fort Lauderdale, FL	22.0%
Pensacola, FL	21.9%
Miami, FL	21.5%
Boise, ID	21.5%
Tucson, AZ	21.1%
North Port, FL	20.9%
Riverside, CA	20.9%
San Antonio, TX	20.3%
Oklahoma City, OK	20.2%
Dallas, TX	19.9%
Sacramento, CA	19.8%
San Diego, CA	19.5%
Fort Worth, TX	18.9%
Gary, IN	18.8%
Memphis, TN	18.3%
Anaheim, CA	18.3%
Tulsa, OK	18.1%
Tacoma, WA	18.0%
Denver, CO	18.0%
Albuquerque, NM	17.9%
Austin, TX	17.9%
Little Rock, AR	17.8%
Los Angeles, CA	17.7%
Myrtle Beach, SC	17.4%
Cleveland, OH	17.3%
Louisville, KY	17.2%
Chattanooga, TN	16.8%
Fayetteville, AR	16.7%
Knoxville, TN	16.7%
Chicago, IL	16.7%
Birmingham, AL	16.6%
Portland, OR	16.6%
Detroit, MI	16.6%
Nashville, TN	16.3%
Elgin, IL	16.3%
Dayton, OH	16.0%
Lake County, IL	15.7%
Albany, NY	15.3%
Virginia Beach, VA	14.9%
Pittsburgh, PA	14.8%
New Haven, CT	14.8%
Camden, NJ	14.7%
Akron, OH	14.5%
Grand Rapids, MI	14.2%
Charleston, SC	14.1%
Indianapolis, IN	13.8%
Columbus, OH	13.6%
Greenville, SC	13.4%
Bridgeport, CT	13.3%
Des Moines, IA	13.0%
Warren, MI	12.7%
Hartford, CT	12.5%
Winston-Salem, NC	12.5%
Cincinnati, OH	12.3%
St. Louis, MO	12.2%
Baltimore, MD	12.0%
Kansas City, MO	11.9%
Worcester, MA	11.9%
Charlotte, NC	11.6%
Washington, D.C.	11.4%
Philadelphia, PA	10.9%
Richmond, VA	10.8%
Seattle, WA	10.5%
Providence, RI	10.5%
Fayetteville, NC	10.1%
Greensboro, NC	10.0%
San Jose, CA	9.7%
Boston, MA	9.6%
Colorado Springs, CO	9.0%
Oakland, CA	8.9%
Milwaukee, WI	8.9%
Minneapolis, MN	8.8%
New Brunswick, NJ	8.8%
Frederick, MD	8.3%
Portland, ME	8.0%
Raleigh, NC	7.0%
New York, NY	6.8%
Buffalo, NY	6.7%
Allentown, PA	6.4%
Montgomery County, PA	6.0%
Nassau County, NY	5.5%
San Francisco, CA	5.5%
Omaha, NE	5.3%
Rochester, NY	4.6%
Newark, NJ	2.6%

[Chris Clothier]

I like reading posts like this for a couple of reasons.  #1 - to get the reactions and thoughts of some people I respect.  #2 - to get the reactions and thoughts of others whom I am just starting to read here on BP to see who I would want to continue reading ( and probably more importantly who not to read).

I've been investing for a long time now (long for me anyways) and I've made enough good decisions to over come my bad ones.  The only thing I would change about my 25+ years since I bought my first property, was read and listen to a lot more that investors who thought differently than me had to say. I was reading a note from someone in South Florida in 2005 and he was advising for investors to be very cautious.  Who knows if he was seeing what the Michael Burry's of the world saw, but he knew home prices were inflated and had great data and arguments to back it up.  I didn't listen and paid a price for a few years.

Now, I would like to think I am a bit smarter.  Almost 9,000 transactions in a half dozen southern States has certainly seasoned me as an investor, but what really makes me smarter today compared to back then is I listen to a lot more varied opinions.  A few things I can tell you are 

- What is happening in one market may not mean a thing in another.  
- Nothing recently can be considered normal so don't try to compare three to six months ago to today, last year or further.
- Pay attention to a lot of differing opinions.  No one has THE answer.
- I've been hearing a lot of investors say we are going to return to "normal" market conditions.  I'm not sure what time period they refer to, but if they mean normal as in post covid shock/pre price run up, I'll take it.  If they mean 2018 thru early 2020, I'll take it.  I'm not sure what normal means, but I think we're heading toward a new one and I think smart investors can and will do very well. 

There are a lot of commenters on here who are 100% positive they have all of the answers.  They KNOW what is going to happen and are quick to tell others.  I still read them because every once in a while they have data or a point to make and their argument makes sense.  At the same time, I've read plenty of commentators who will be the first to tell you they don't have all of the answers and yet every argument they put forward for what they expect to happen seems rational and well thought out.  

As for me, I am cautiously optimistic.  I believe we will enter a "new normal" shortly where 6%+ interest rates become the accepted norm by the investment community and investors will have spent time pricing in the rate and adjusting to how investments will meet their expectations.  There will be winners and losers, but I firmly believe the outcomes will have been the same regardless of what data points people look at.  Those that are patient and invest with their eyes open and a clear understanding of how an investment will achieve their expectations will win more often than not.  And those investors will always be consuming forums like this one to inform their decision making.