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All Forum Posts by: Owen Dashner

Owen Dashner has started 102 posts and replied 968 times.

Post: Who in real estate should we interview? Any suggestions?

Owen Dashner
Posted
  • Lender
  • Omaha, NE
  • Posts 1,003
  • Votes 1,043

Lonnie Scruggs might be another one to consider. Everybody seems to like hearing more about "Lonnie Deals"...

Post: Appreciation VS. Cash flow - The clash of the titans....

Owen Dashner
Posted
  • Lender
  • Omaha, NE
  • Posts 1,003
  • Votes 1,043

True enough Eddie. I guess I was speaking more on general terms on a macro-level from a market fluctuation standpoint.

I live in a cashflow state/area and we definitely experienced neither the huge runup in values during the bubble, nor the massive decreases during the crash- a la Miami, Vegas, etc...

Stable values, steady cashflow- just not very exciting in terms of market prices.

Post: Appreciation VS. Cash flow - The clash of the titans....

Owen Dashner
Posted
  • Lender
  • Omaha, NE
  • Posts 1,003
  • Votes 1,043

Neither in tis thread or the original one did it define apprciation as "market appreciation". Further, in EVERY argument for cash flow made by MikeOH, he uses the varience of buying at a steep discount to obtain cash flow. How fair of a comparison is that if the appreciation side doe snot get to do the same thing? The problem with that is it is an unfair comparison and thus my apples to watermellons analogy. I surely can buy at a steep discount to obtain equity.

I guess if we are not talking about market appreciation, then it becomes a whole different discussion. When someone talks about a house "appreciating", to me it means that it goes up in value- either due to the market or due to forcing it through improvements.

I understand what you are saying about discounts, but in my opinion buying at a discount has nothing to do with whether or not you bought the house for appreciation or cashflow. If you buy a $100K house in a declining market for $50K, it means you bought it with built in equity- not that it appreciated in value instantly. It's two different things.

Post: Appreciation VS. Cash flow - The clash of the titans....

Owen Dashner
Posted
  • Lender
  • Omaha, NE
  • Posts 1,003
  • Votes 1,043

I agree, the vein of this thread apprears to be buying solely for market appreciation vs. buying solely for cashflow - not variations of each like buying at a discount, forced appreciation, etc.

Buying a house purely for appreciation purposes is no different than buying a growth stock with the hope that it will go up in value. You can do all of the due dilligence you like, research the heck out of the latest market trends for the area and so on- just like researching how solid a company is before buying its stock. But the bottom line is, you have no control over whether or not your asset (whether it's a house or a stock) increases in value or not, even if you're the smartest guy in the world. Almost nobody saw the Lehman Brothers collapse coming, and how it touched off a domino effect with the values of real estate and the stock market crushed almost across the board...

Conversely, if a house was purchased purely for cashflow, it would not be nearly as exposed to economic or market influences because it is producing spendable income, and its value is less relevant because it was purchased as a cash-producing asset. Sort of like buying a municipal bond. Some might argue that economic factors like a large employer closing can directly affect cashflow because of vacancies, etc. I agree with that, but it's not really the point.

You can make the analogy of thousands of daytraders making a living by betting on appreciation, but it's simply not accurate because they are dealing with fairly liquid assets, plus they can use loss limits, puts, inverse ETF's, etc... Whereas If you buy a house only for appreciation and the market goes south, you are screwed because you are now holding onto an illiquid asset in a declining market.

So the question boils down to, how much risk are you willing to take? Buying for cashflow is sustainable and safer with less upside, and buying for appreciation involves much higher upside, but also much higher risk.

Now don't get me wrong, I like gambling as much as the next guy. I just don't want to base my investing business purely on something that I have no control over. Once I have the proper foundation laid of income producing assets with minimal risk, then maybe do some speculation on market appreciation with my "fun" money. Certainly nothing wrong with it, I just view it as the top level of my "money pyramid".

Post: VA "Vendee" Financing - Good?

Owen Dashner
Posted
  • Lender
  • Omaha, NE
  • Posts 1,003
  • Votes 1,043

Thanks Dave, good feedback.

Post: VA "Vendee" Financing - Good?

Owen Dashner
Posted
  • Lender
  • Omaha, NE
  • Posts 1,003
  • Votes 1,043

I'm curious to see who here has purchased an investment VA property using "vendee" financing. Please describe the process, whether it was as straightforward as it seems, and what your associated costs were. Also, would you do it again?

There have recently been a bunch of new VA listings pop up in my market that offer the "5% down" option for investors. Since 5% down deals are otherwise unavailable for the most part, this appears to be an attractive method to acquire rentals, and I would liike to hear the pros/cons from those experienced in using this type of financing for deals...

Post: Does this sound silly?

Owen Dashner
Posted
  • Lender
  • Omaha, NE
  • Posts 1,003
  • Votes 1,043

Jessica,

It really depends on how motivated you are, and who your target buyers are. If you want out quick and time is more of a motivation than money, then I would market it as a "fixer" at a low price to sell it quickly to an investor.

However, it sounds like you are interested in gaining experience/knowledge in real estate investing. If this is the case, then if I were you I would absolutely spend the time, effort and money to do the minor fixes you mentioned and market your property to a retail buyer.

Most retail buyers do not want to do work when they move in. Pay attention to all the little "fixit" details, stage appropriately, and make sure the place is clean during showings. Stick with a neutral color scheme to appeal to more buyers.

The latter method will obviously take time, money and energy- so make sure you are ready to deal with it.

Best of luck,

Owen

Post: Derivatives Explained

Owen Dashner
Posted
  • Lender
  • Omaha, NE
  • Posts 1,003
  • Votes 1,043

Derivatives finally explained

Heidi is the proprietor of a bar in Detroit. In order to increase sales, she decides to allow her loyal customers - most of whom are unemployed alcoholics - to drink now but pay later. She keeps track of the drinks consumed on a ledger (thereby granting the customers loans).

Word gets around about Heidi's drink now pay later marketing strategy and as a result, increasing numbers of customers flood into Heidi's bar and soon she has the largest sales volume for any bar in Detroit. By providing her customers freedom from immediate payment demands, Heidi gets no resistance when she substantially increases her prices for wine and beer, the most consumed beverages.

Her sales volume increases massively. A young and dynamic vice-president at the local bank recognizes these customer debts as valuable future assets and increases Heidi's borrowing limit. He sees no reason for undue concern since he has the debts of the alcoholics as collateral. At the bank's corporate headquarters,
expert traders transform these customer loans into DRINKBONDS, ALKIBONDS and PUKEBONDS. These securities are then traded on security markets worldwide. Naive investors don't really understand the securities being sold to them as AAA secured bonds are really the debts of unemployed
alcoholics. Nevertheless, their prices continuously climb, and the securities become the top-selling items for some of the nation's leading brokerage houses who collect enormous fees on their sales, pay extravagant bonuses to their sales force, and who in turn purchase exotic sports cars and multimillion dollar condominiums.

One day, although the bond prices are still climbing, a risk manager at the bank (subsequently fired due his negativity), decides that the time has come to demand payment on the debts incurred by the drinkers at Heidi's bar. Heidi demands payment from her alcoholic patrons, but being unemployed, they cannot pay back their drinking debts.

Therefore, Heidi cannot fulfill her loan obligations and claims bankruptcy. DRINKBONDS and ALKIBONDS drop in price by 90 %. PUKEBONDS perform better, stabilizing in price after dropping by 80 %. The decreased bond asset value destroys the bank's liquidity and prevents it from issuing new loans.

The suppliers of Heidi's bar, having granted her generous payment extensions and having invested in the securities are faced with writing off her debt and losing over 80% on her bonds. Her wine supplier claims bankruptcy, her beer supplier is taken over by a competitor, who immediately closes the local plant and lays off 50 workers.

The bank and brokerage houses are saved by the Government
following dramatic round-the-clock negotiations by leaders from both political parties. The funds required for this bailout are obtained by a tax levied on employed middle-class non-drinkers.

Finally an explanation I understand.


:wink:

Post: Good Deal?

Owen Dashner
Posted
  • Lender
  • Omaha, NE
  • Posts 1,003
  • Votes 1,043

No worries Jason, that's why the forums are here- to ask questions. What I mean by "look at houses in your target area", is that you need to physically go out, go through and inspect a lot more houses in your area before buying one. Don't rely on just what you see online.

Carve out time in your schedule where you are going to be doing nothing but physically walking through houses. Or at the very least, do a ton of driving around your area and looking at the exterior of houses for sale. Once you have personally looked at a BUNCH (some say 100 is a good number) of houses in your area, you will have the market value down cold.

I firmly believe you should not skip over this step before you make an offer. I sunk way too much repair money into my first foreclosure investment property because I relied too much on online information (including assessor values) instead of physical inspection. There is no substitute for personally walking through neighborhoods and houses.

Look at 10 houses a day over 10 days and you are at a hundred- that's manageable, right? Pick out your target price range, neighborhood(s), and style/age of house. Then make a list and get crackin' on the walkthroughs. Look at enough and you will be able to tell very quickly what makes a house worth $60K vs. $80K.

Good luck!

Post: Good Deal?

Owen Dashner
Posted
  • Lender
  • Omaha, NE
  • Posts 1,003
  • Votes 1,043

Jeffrey is correct. The tax assessed value has no relevance in determining market value of a property.

I bought a house in December for $60K, and it had an assessed value of $127K when I bought it. That is quite obviously a gigantic difference between assessed value and real value.

You need to look at a LOT more houses in your target area. This is the only way you will gain a solid understanding of true market value.