Originally posted by @William S.:
After the refinance on potential BRRRR properties they tend to leave $0-$25/m of cash flow for a couple of reasons.
1. Higher mortgage payment
2. Long term CapEx: I calculate $180-$200/m per unit and that's if everything got replaced during the rehab. This was calculated over a 30 year period (life of loan).
3. Property Management
To realize more cash flow, it seems it'd be best to sell in 5-15 years before CapEx becomes an issue. Is anyone practicing this strategy?
It seems you could acquire several rentals, hold for 5-10 years, sell some, and use the gain to payoff the mortgages on a few.
The problem is you're considering CapEx a monthly expense when it isn't. Capital expenditures are individual cashflow events. If you want to underwrite for a 30 year hold then you have to factor in everything. I ran a very conservative sample deal of a single family through my spreadsheet using the following info.
Value post rehab $200k
$150k 30 year loan at 5%
Rent: $1700
Vacancy: 8% (1 month)
Insurance: $600
Property Management: $200 (8% per month and one lease fee every 24 months)
Repairs and Maintenance: $50
Property tax: $3000
Your $180 CapEx budget works out to $64,800 over the 30 year hold. So I figured on a hypothetical $12,960 Capital Expense on year 10, 15, 20, 25 and 30. Rent growth and all expense growth were modeled at 3% annually.
Year | Annual Cash Flow |
1 | $ 2,505.00 |
2 | $ 2,870.00 |
3 | $ 3,246.00 |
4 | $ 3,634.00 |
5 | $ 4,032.00 |
6 | $ 4,443.00 |
7 | $ 4,866.00 |
8 | $ 5,302.00 |
9 | $ 5,751.00 |
10 | $ (6,746.00) |
11 | $ 6,690.00 |
12 | $ 7,181.00 |
13 | $ 7,686.00 |
14 | $ 8,206.00 |
15 | $ (4,218.00) |
16 | $ 9,295.00 |
17 | $ 9,863.00 |
18 | $ 10,449.00 |
19 | $ 11,052.00 |
20 | $ (1,286.00) |
21 | $ 12,314.00 |
22 | $ 12,973.00 |
23 | $ 13,652.00 |
24 | $ 14,352.00 |
25 | $ 2,112.00 |
26 | $ 15,814.00 |
27 | $ 16,579.00 |
28 | $ 17,366.00 |
29 | $ 18,177.00 |
30 | $ 6,052.00 |
Total: | $ 224,212.00 |
After year 10 when you make your first capital expense your cumulative cash flow has already added up to $29,905 which works out to an average monthly cash flow of $249 over the first 10 years.
The average monthly cashflow over the full 30 years works out to $622. Now on year 31 the house is paid off and the monthly cashflow is over $2,400 and the house is worth almost a half million dollars (again using 3% for appreciation.) Now you can argue with some of my assumptions, but if you're going to forecast a 30 year hold assumptions are a necessity.
Now if you were able to purchase the house and rehab it for less than the $150k refinance amount it would be tough to pass this deal up.