@Greg Dickerson Thank you for the feedback. Based on some very rough calculations, this is what I'm coming up with:
10.21 acres @ 18 units per acre for intermediate density zoning = 183 max total units
@ $1,100/mo in avg rents (this is fairly conservative and could be closer to $1,200) x 183 units = $2.4m annual GR
Using expense ratio of 35% leaves $1.56m for NOI
Cap rates in the area are hovering in the 5-6 range depending on product class and neighborhood, so let's use 6%, leaving us with a stabilized value of $26m.
Not knowing the cost of construction in this particular market, I'm estimating a per sqft cost of $130 x average unit size of 1,000 sqft x 183 units = $23,790,000
Land is listed for sale at $995,000 but owner is willing to trade in kind for equity in the deal which eliminates capital requirements for land acquisition.
In my extremely inexperienced opinion, this deal seems too skinny to consider, but am I overlooking anything obvious? It goes without saying I understand the economics are very market specific, but can you point out any flaws in my logic? Would it make more sense to scale the project back and try to keep hard costs to a fixed number and work it from that angle? When you build your models, are your per sqft costs inclusive of all infrastructure and pre-building expenses?
@Justin Morrow I appreciate the input as well. I have some capital to deploy in the range of a couple hundred thousand bucks that I was willing to put in the deal to cover soft costs and any remainder would be applied to the equity piece. I appreciate the additional financing options, as I was unfamiliar with C-Pace. I'll do some homework on that and see if it's worth looking into down the road.
@Barry Ruby I wholeheartedly agree about the "dance" you speak of, but I suppose that's part of what I like about CRE. The game of real estate is fascinating and limitless which allows anyone with a good work ethic to thrive, which I really enjoy. You hit the nail on the head with some thoughts I had rattling around in my noggin, in regards to the path of progress for the project. Never having done anything to this scale, I'm a little unsure with what steps need to happen and when. I've started a word doc outlining my thought process and will be working on organizing those thoughts more methodically over the next couple of days. Regardless of the outcome of this specific deal, it seems like a good exercise as it will likely be needed in the future for any development project.
All that being said, if this deal comes together, then creating an investor pool is my next big hurdle. Is it safe to assume I'd have to create a syndicate in order to go about that? Can you syndicate development deals, or are they solely reserved for existing assets that need repositioning?
Thank you all again for the input!