I think of real estate assets similarly to stocks and bonds.
For example:
- Highest risk - requires high expected short term return to consider deal
- Penny Stocks > D class properties in bad areas with large vacancy/non payment risk and low appreciation potential or potential decrease in value
- Medium Risk:
- Growth Stocks - B or C class, medium aged assets in average quality neighborhood with low vacancy - property maybe has some deferred maintenance or major systems nearing end of expected life - probably will be a little smoother ride than the high risk ones, you'll likely get some appreciation long term but have some updates to deal with in the near future.
- Low Risk
- Bonds - Best/safest assets in a market - highly desirable neighborhood/school district with strong, diverse job growth, high quality building that's newer or has has had a full cosmetic and mechanical rehab. These properties will likely have lower vacancy, higher rent increase potential and in some cases may not need any capex items for years.
The return you expect in terms of cash depends on which category you fall in. If it's in a low risk area, it's unlikely you'll hit the 10% COC return in todays market. Not familiar with your area but around here it's very hard to get those numbers on a high quality asset but that doesn't mean that you're a fool for purchasing due to all the other ways you can make money.
For example - If your duplex falls into the high quality/low risk category, the low cashflow on those low risk assets is offset by a variety of things:
- Appreciation potential 300,000 * X%
- Principal reduction $6500 in year 1 assuming 3% mortgage for 25 years
- Depreciation: your $4500 of income is offset by $8700 of depreciation leaving you with a $4000 passive loss assuming your land is 20% of the value. This may be able to be applied to your W2 income or carried over to future years when your rent goes up or you pay off the property.
- Therefore, before factoring in any potential appreciation your actual internal rate of return is:
- $4200 cash (would need to be a return of closer to 6000 in taxable investment vehicles)
- $6500 of principal reduction
- $4000 of passive loss which is worth 4000 * your tax rate in either this years taxes or a future year. let's assume 25% and assign this a value of $1000.
Therefore, with 60K down, you have $4500+$6500+$1000 = $12,000 of value generated before any appreciation which is about a 20% internal rate of return. There are some caveats i.e. principle reduction isn't liquid and only a benefit if values don't decrease, things like depreciation are recaptured at sale and you pay some tax then but if you're in a high quality market, buying and holding for the long term, etc it may still make sense to consider below the 8% CoC level if your confident in your numbers and have appropriate reserves. The low risk assets are a longer term plan and probably not ideal if you're goal is to generate max cashflow now but could be good if your goal is to generate max wealth 20 years from now. It's up to you to make that determination given your situation, market, and long term goals/cash flow needs but thought I'd share a perspective and some metrics I don't see shared as often on this site.