Hey everyone. Wanted to post an update. A member of the BP team reached out to me and I we had a great 15 minute chat. Hats off to the BP team for their commitment to the community.
I wanted to put a pin on my original post. I think my initial feedback comes back to this question: What is the argument for investing in real estate right now? For the last decade, there was a strong case. The old school rules of thumbs worked and the content of the BP podcast was a masterclass in how to do it. Today, not so much. So what is the case today to take action vs. waiting and/or investing in a non-RE asset class.
In the words of investor Jack Bogle, 'Don't do something; just stand there'.
Or to parrot Boglehead investing advice: If you won the game, stop playing.
If the response is 'the rules have changed' well let's deep dive this--After all investing history has not treated investors well that make this proclamation in the past.
From an economic view:
1. SFR is a hot market. Are there deals? Of course! but for a majority of investors that are not full time, it seems too competitive a space to say the odds are in your favor if you play. Buy the Toilet Paper you need and wait, the market will catch up. No need to stock pile.
2. Commercial: Seems like a nice idea, if you can find niches. That said, you are tying up your capital in a long term low CAP rate asset and if interest rates raise, you end up losing money.
So here was my specific feedback to the BP team:
1. What are the rules right now? What is the case to take action vs. wait? (After all, there were people investing in Detroit in the 1980's--action is not always progress, it can be regressive to ones goals).
2. As an investor, how do I perform due diligence before investing in other people's deals? (private lending, syndications, REIT's, etc.) I think this is a bigger deal as SFR investors cash out and may want to place their capital with others. Not going to lie, investing in something that either I don't personally own, have colleterial against, or is a publicly traded company with audited financials scares the crap out of me.
3. International perspective. What does the rest of the world look like?