All Forum Posts by: Mike Gebhardt

@collinsmith, thanks for your feedback. 

Chris, thanks for this resource. 

To everyone else, I am new to the area, and just starting my RE investing journey. 

I hope you guys don't mind a couple of questions. 

Colin posted above:

Talking with lenders, almost all the hard money guys cancelled their loans and are no longer offering new lines of credit. Puts guys like me in a bind when we have closings coming up on great deals in a couple weeks. It sounds like several of the hard money guys across the nation closed doors and called it quits this week too. For all the other lenders out there, all the non QM loans are stalling and we saw contracts fall through because of it. Any in the box


For those of you who have been thru a cycle or two, did you see this last time, the asset based lending guys dry up when it hit the fan? Do you feel that there is an opportunity there for someone that can still tap money and perform good underwriting? 

If I understand it correctly, guys that can get liquid now, either buy and hold or rehabbers are in the drivers seat, yes? And it seems to me, that if you can be liquid whether with experience or not, that the playing field will be shrinking here soon. Meaning less competition on the bid side. Do I have that right? 

With respect to to deal side, do you guys see the offer side of the market pulling in substantially, meaningfully, or not really at all. And is it possible to put a time frame on that? Like I think my question is, have the distressed sellers been sophisticated enough in the past to start cutting price aggressively and getting creative in this environment?

Like assuming full blown recession, which I am, can anyone venture a guess as to inventory and price trends in the next 6-12 months? I don't expect, no matter how bad it gets finance wise, to see what we saw in '08-09. Mainly due to greater Denver's demographics. But I've been wrong before, and most likely will be again. :)

I hope this makes sense. 

Again, thanks for this resource. 

Andy thanks for that information. I'm not sure why I thought that new production performers would trade at par. I have a lot to learn. For now, without going to our network for money, while we are in due diligence phase, we are trying to focus on NPN.

Andy, its all good i didn't think you were being a tool. I guess I'm a little sensitive to the "this is very very hard to do" thing. 

I know. I know we aren't going to see hedgie or bank tapes till we make our bones. I know the learning curve is steep. 

I just think my partner's and my skill set and time availability might be a good fit. From a fair amount of REIA things I went to several years back, it seemed to me 10% of the folks in the room did 90% of the deals. (Kind of like life). I expect if you network and get out there, swing at a few, protect your downside, you can learn it, if you know how to protect your clients and investors.

One more question. When you guys talk about mom and pop paper, you are talking about one off 'buy this single note' that I have worked out already, yes? They are listed on this site and elsewhere. Meaning if mom and pop bought the note, serviced and got it re-performing, are collecting 10% and offering me 8%. Correct? I know that's as rookie as a question as there is, i am just clarifying. 

thanks 

Yea Ron, our objective is to build a business that in 3 years is self sustaining/cash flowing. It remains to be seen what cash flow our expectations are as we have no frame of reference yet. 

I'm not sure what you mean by this: 

You're gonna get your arse handed to you more than likely servicing someone else's mistake.

Are you saying we won't be competent enough to buy a note for cheap that not performing, get it performing and then have a viable exit strategy or the willingness to hold or sell a partial? Not sure what you're getting at here'

That's what the original/current holder of the note wants too so if it's generating revenue, why would they sell it?

Everything is for sale in life, no? Is not the caliber of your network the determinant of what you can pay? 

The wouldn't, unless that note has hair on it, and you wouldn't buy it with hair on it, unless you got it at a discount sufficient enough to make it worth the hair.

And therein lies the trade I think. If no one did what you're saying here than people would only buy performing notes, right? But it seems there's a viable (brisk?) market in non performers? 

I don't mean to sound like a jerk, I hope it doensn't come off like that. But it seems you're saying the grind of buying non performing notes, working them out, and then either exiting or holding is not worth that 'grind'. 

Did I mis-represent what you're trying to get across? 

Anyway, thanks very much for the response. 

actually, I had seen that forum. I posted the above over there first. I just hadnt and still dont have any responses. 

Thanks 

I had not seen that forum yet Andy, thank you......

Kevin

Where in LI? I left there for Costa Rica about 18 months ago (and moving to Colorado next week). There is a great well attended LIREIA group in Levittown once a month. You will meet like mindeds there. Let me know if I can help, I have a lot of friends on LI. 

Mike 

Greetings.

Forming a JV with a friend to invest, broker(?), and trade notes.

We are former partners in a bond trading background, and understand networking, brokering vs principal transactions, and how to protect our clients. We are not trying to hit a home run this year, our goals are modest for now, and really have little to do with making money early on. Our goal is more to build a business that can sustain us down the road. We have a long term perspective. I kind of laugh at the people looking to generate 20% ROI immediately in notes. I understand its possible, and I also understand the amount of work and time it'll take to build a network of trust.

We're still in due diligence, and we are reading as much as possible. Of course we bought the course, and while enlightening, the course material has got some holes we are looking to fill. That guy, the course teacher - niches in NPN for both mailbox money, and brokering to clients/friends. And also selling some partial cashflows while retaining the paper.

Our beginning questions start with:

Whats goes into deciding whats a good state for US to start dialing for dollars in? Besides thinking that non judicial states might be better than judicial, should we be thinking of something else with respect to choosing an area to work in? Wouldn't there be less competition for sole practitioners like my pal and I (as opposed to institutional buyers) in judicial states?

If I have this right, we are to

1. develop a network, of both sellers of paper, and buyers

2. learn to evaluate and read a tape

3. take down a small note for position to get the lay of the land and our systems in place (servicer, marketing, networking)

4. find more paper and do it again

Do I have this right? Is this a viable way to approach this from where we are now?

Of course we have access to the seller of the course, we haven't gotten back to him with this yet, I am soliciting some other opinions here first.

I am moving back to the US from Costa Rica in a couple weeks, to Colorado. My partner lives in NJ. We both have pretty good potential networks of buyers (and maybe even sellers) in NY, but we aren't sure what criteria we should employ to start networking for sellers.

Thanks in advance for welcoming us here.

Mike

Greetings.

Forming a JV with a friend to invest, broker(?), and trade notes.

We are former partners in a bond trading background, and understand networking, brokering vs principal transactions, and how to protect our clients. We are not trying to hit a home run this year, our goals are modest for now, and really have little to do with making money early on. Our goal is more to build a business that can sustain us down the road. We have a long term perspective. I kind of laugh at the people looking to generate 20% ROI immediately in notes. I understand its possible, and I also understand the amount of work and time it'll take to build a network of trust.

We're still in due diligence, and we are reading as much as possible. Of course we bought the course, and while enlightening, the course material has got some holes we are looking to fill. That guy, the course teacher - niches in NPN for both mailbox money, and brokering to clients/friends. And also selling some partial cashflows while retaining the paper.

Our beginning questions start with:

Whats goes into deciding whats a good state for US to start dialing for dollars in? Besides thinking that non judicial states might be better than judicial, should we be thinking of something else with respect to choosing an area to work in? Wouldn't there be less competition for sole practitioners like my pal and I (as opposed to institutional buyers) in judicial states? 

If I have this right, we are to 

1. develop a network, of both sellers of paper, and buyers 

2. learn to evaluate and read a tape

3. take down a small note for position to get the lay of the land and our systems in place (servicer, marketing, networking) 

4. find more paper and do it again

Do I have this right? Is this a viable way to approach this from where we are now? 

Of course we have access to the seller of the course, we haven't gotten back to him with this yet, I am soliciting some other opinions here first.  

I am moving back to the US from Costa Rica in a couple weeks, to Colorado. My partner lives in NJ. We both have pretty good potential networks of buyers (and maybe even sellers) in NY, but we aren't sure what criteria we should employ to start networking for sellers. 

Thanks in advance for welcoming us here. 

Mike