Quote from @Shulem Deen:
Hi all -- I'm new to real estate investing, but looking to get into SFR fix-and-flip. (I'm in NYC, and looking at properties in Hudson Valley and Upstate.) I'm hitting a big stumbling block, though, and wondering if anyone with experience can share some tips.
From everything I've studied, it boils down to three numbers: 1) Purchase Price, 2) Rehab Cost, 3) ARV. The formula being: Profit = ARV - Purchase Price - Rehab Cost.
The problem I have is getting reliable figures for 2 and 3 — Rehab Price and ARV.
For rehab price: getting a contractor to give me a ballpark estimate seems the natural approach, but that seems doable only for 1-2 properties. If I'm looking at a dozen properties, it's hard to ask a contractor to run around with me to them all.
For ARV: the right way seems to be to look at comps. But without experience, where do you get reliable numbers? I've asked my agent to run a CMA for me on some properties, but it seems impossible to know if it's apples-to-apples, given that I don't know if those are pre- or post-rehab. I can use the basic criteria (BRs/BAs, sqft, year built, etc), but one property might be a dump sold to an investor for a gut-job, and another might be a beautiful turnkey for an owner-occupant.
Anyone have any insight to share? Appreciate any and all thoughts.
Shulem
Hey There! Im an agent in the Hudson Valley. As an agent I should be able to compare apples to apples for you. If I give you an ARV range, it should be pretty accurate. When we run comps, we see if the houses are updated or dilapidated. If I know you're about to make it aesthetically pleasing, grey paint, new appliances... I should be able to give you an accurate ARV.
As others have said, definitely look at Zillow or whatever site at what has sold in the last 30ish days. Find one-three that look like yours and run the average.