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All Forum Posts by: Michael Wooldridge

Michael Wooldridge has started 0 posts and replied 481 times.

Quote from @Eric Bilderback:
Quote from @Martin LaBelle:

The last two years were crazy, and there is very little you can say that is true everywhere. 

Going into 2020, our market (around Fort Bragg, NC) had been artificially suppressed for many years by a large number of VA loans/appraisals (which can be both stabilizing and stagnating). Once the 2020 capital flood hit, our market jumped out of the VA trap.... but then it kept going. We are all expecting a slight contraction, but in the end I expect to hold on to the appreciation that had been artificially suppressed by the VA. I think we all expect to lose a certain percentage as the market corrects.

@Eric Bilderback as to the collapse of the economy and the USD, do you really think that is likely? I've been listening to some folks that make a compelling case that the US is uniquely equipped to emerge healthy from the next few years. The most concise argument I have heard is a joint demographic and geopolitical analysis by Peter Zeihan. He makes a similar case in all his books, but his most recent is "The End of the World is Just the Beginning"


 Collapse?, no.  But a trend away from the dollar?, absolutely.  I don’t believe their has ever been a nation that consumed so much and produced so little.  We are dead weight and I would argue at some point we will be screwed and it will be our own doing.


 A trend away from the dollar to what? Are currency is actually trending up against most of the world currencies these days. Half our issue is a strong dollar. Which is it going to trend away to?

As to production - people need to start looking as talent and services as production - IP if you will. Labor the world over is in a huge crunch and yet we produce some of the largest talent across the globe. We just aren't in a manufacturing world anymore. Regardless the CHIP bill is going to get some more manufacturing online soon in country. Which is a good thing and we've already been producing some key chips in country as it is. 

But the days of product building economy are gone for the US - thats all China these days. Which has it's downside but also it's upsides as they rely heavily on us to make money. You can see that in how they are being impacted right now also.

@Bruce Woodruff That starts to get into politics and other items. The last few years we’ve had a massive meeting of divergent issues. I don’t think the US handled it perfectly but there wasn’t a lot of options and frankly look at how our currency is doing compared to others. Look at the pound this morning as an example. 

Frankly the largest on-going issue comes back to supply chains. Energy, low unemployment, China key materials supply shortage: almost every issue right now is tied to global supply chain crunch. If we get that under control even spending more money won’t cause a big issue because we don’t exactly spend trillions on the norm. 

@Carlos Ptriawan Making unemployment low or high? Sadly raising the unemployment rate probably helps in the short term.  Home supply, until we address zoning hard to see how that changes. And frankly too much of the population doesn’t want to lose their wealth. Which makes real zoning changes difficult. 




Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

 This one I agree. Actually, the Fed prediction for unemployment for 2023/2024 is 4.3-4.5%.  

Basically, Fed is making unemployment and the housing market as hostage. 

As long as these two sectors are still strong they will just continue to raise the rate. 

Now this is where things get a little scary for me. They are raising rates to slow the economy. And it was needed. BUT one of the big reasons for inflation is supply chain and I say that in regards to materials but also labor. The fact is labor and wages are still running well.

They have to balance not going to far on rates and let labor get there. My hope is we have the next 75 basis points next month and then they pause for a bit. 

Companies are adjusting but it takes time to play out. Heck I work in tech and even the PE investments have shifted ot be more cash flow focus (cheap money being gone). Thee have been lay offs at a lot of companies but still plenty of investment look at Adobe in the acquisition of figma (large example). 

BUt little concerned fed goes to heavy on the rate increases. Takes time for jobs to hit. 


Quote from @Jack Seiden:
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:

 I’ll actually come in and defend the fed’s actions here, the printing of money in March of 2020 plus zero rates likely saved us from a depression on top of a pandemic (the type of thing that causes societal collapse.) They were way to late to hike and are now arguably too aggressive but in the grand scheme of things we over printed (money that will basically be sucked back out of the system by high rates and the loss of velocity of money, for everyone taking about how much money we’ve printed right now the biggest issue the world economy is facing is literally a too strong dollar not a diluted one.) and avoided a much worse catastrophe where people starved during a pandemic.


I know someone will defend this but other countries actually don't print that much money during covid and it doesn't trigger a societal collapse in there. The reverse is actually true. In the US there's a lot more printing and the riot has increased as well. Actually, the Fed action creates much more volatility rather than the covid itself.

Also the latest CPI reading, one of major increases in inflation is from shelter/rent.
Do you know any landlord in BP that's willing to reduce the rents ?


 And most world economies didn’t come out of Covid with nearly the strength of our economy, for all our issues we are still by far the strongest economy in the world (hense the strong dollar.) as far as rents while I think it’s unlikely they drop the rate of increase is clearly slowing and if we get a bad recession could come down a little, remember landlords don’t set rents, the vacancy rate sets rent.

Value of Dollar against a lot of world currencies is interesting right now. It’s a very good point. 
Quote from @Carlos Ptriawan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:
Quote from @John Myers:

Inflation and high interest rates were easy to predict. Washington DC has been printing money like crazy. Check out these links and see what has been happening with M1 money supply and M2 money supply. This is a HUGE problem and this is all you need to know. How can the government print so much money and not think we would have inflation. Jerome Powell has access to this data (this is government produced data) and was running around telling us the inflation was transitory. That was not true. So Jerome Powell is either STUPID or he is a LIAR. You can make your own decision.

Too many people on Bigger Pockets are evaluating the housing market compared to the last recession. The housing market is in better condition than prior to the last recession. However, everyone needs to look at the bigger picture, the US economy and the global economy. Europe (especially Germany) is in big trouble with energy. This is due to several years of bad decisions by their governments. It is too late to save them in the near future.

The US economy is in trouble. The CEO of FedEx stated their business is slowing down. FedEx is a great predictor of the economy. If they are not shipping as much, guess what? Consumers are not buying and suppliers are not shipping.

The housing market will follow the overall economy. Things are not looking good for the economy and we are at the beginning (my opinion) of the down trend in the economy.

I think home prices will decline more (not like 2008) and rents will continue to increase although not as much as recently.

So by not 2008 are you saying more down than 08 or just further decline from where we are at?  

I don’t think anybody disputes they will drop further. The macroeconomic issue isn’t pretty and lots of companies are on travel bans (well before fedex news). Lay offs are planned by C-suite but not to the same degree we saw in 01 or 08. 

There are a couple reasons for less lay offs: 

1) there is a bit more concern about the social media view of company. It won’t stop lay offs but it causes them to be more thoughtful. 

You missed the big picture why there will be more layoffs.

So outside of commodity export, most USA exports are tech/medical produced, mostly IC/semiconductor.
With the dollar strengthening to even make the pound sterling at 40 years low now,  no country can afford to buy American products especially when the supply chain is also disrupted. 

The strengthening of US dollar is only bring advantage to other supplier (mainly Taiwan or China) and trigger further de-dollarization. 

When the company is losing more revenues (expect next quarter), they will start cost control program. No hiring more layoffs or only hiring outside USA where labour is cheaper.

Well I’d argue we export services more than anything but on the commodities yes.To be clear I’m expecting lay offs next qtr the next 4 months of corporate earnings is not going to be pretty. FedEx, Accenture, Ford is just the beginning. 

What I’m saying is they just aren’t at that level we saw in 01/08 or at least not planned. Theoretically we could end up in a domino effect - which I’m banking on not happening - but the reality is most companies stopped hiring back in March/April, many more stopped replacing people over summer, and lay-offs as well.

I’m not arguing at all that lay offs aren’t coming. BUt with a 3.7 unemployment - just expecting the economy to absorb what comes for the most part. Even getting to 5 to 5.2% which is a large increase - is something we can handle. 

Cost controls though have been in play for 6 months with some surprising companies on travel bans over summer. Sort of like the home builders the fortune/global 2000 reacted a lot faster this time around. Should keep lay offs lower than some expect.

In regards to tech, It’s where I reside and that churn I referenced is something they are more afraid of than anything. Many tech divisions or companies saw upwards of 30% churn last 2 years. You’d be surprised how concerned they are about talent right now. 

Quote from @John Myers:

Inflation and high interest rates were easy to predict. Washington DC has been printing money like crazy. Check out these links and see what has been happening with M1 money supply and M2 money supply. This is a HUGE problem and this is all you need to know. How can the government print so much money and not think we would have inflation. Jerome Powell has access to this data (this is government produced data) and was running around telling us the inflation was transitory. That was not true. So Jerome Powell is either STUPID or he is a LIAR. You can make your own decision.

Too many people on Bigger Pockets are evaluating the housing market compared to the last recession. The housing market is in better condition than prior to the last recession. However, everyone needs to look at the bigger picture, the US economy and the global economy. Europe (especially Germany) is in big trouble with energy. This is due to several years of bad decisions by their governments. It is too late to save them in the near future.

The US economy is in trouble. The CEO of FedEx stated their business is slowing down. FedEx is a great predictor of the economy. If they are not shipping as much, guess what? Consumers are not buying and suppliers are not shipping.

The housing market will follow the overall economy. Things are not looking good for the economy and we are at the beginning (my opinion) of the down trend in the economy.

I think home prices will decline more (not like 2008) and rents will continue to increase although not as much as recently.

So by not 2008 are you saying more down than 08 or just further decline from where we are at?  

I don’t think anybody disputes they will drop further. The macroeconomic issue isn’t pretty and lots of companies are on travel bans (well before fedex news). Lay offs are planned by C-suite but not to the same degree we saw in 01 or 08. 

There are a couple reasons for less lay offs: 

1) there is a bit more concern about the social media view of company. It won’t stop lay offs but it causes them to be more thoughtful. 
2) Most have experienced the labor market shortage. Even now labor participation in the US is down from the highs. There is continued pressure on this with more boomers retiring every day. 
3) The great resignation last 2 years has impacted Fortune and Global 2000 companies in a big way. Most have experienced 20% churn if not more. This has had a huge “brain drain” / tribal knowledge loss.

Companies might not be hiring and planning slight lay offs but all of them are trying hard to keep the talent they have. 

US unemployment is still 3.7%. Even going up to 5-6% isn’t going to have this massive hit. That said the one thing that is harder to predict is the broad global economy. As you said al countries are impacted. Inflation is high everywhere (look at UK).

I still see reduction on housing coming but it still seems unlikely to be as bad as 08. But time will tell. As a side play I do think the 30 to 60 trillion boomers are about to leave their descendants is going to prop up real estate also. Lot of wealth moving around the next 20 years. 

@Alejandro Valbuena very complex question. First thing I’d say is housing is absolutely location/regional specific. For example in 2008 CA, FL, Las Vegas drove massive median drops across the country. However, many areas my own for example only saw 13% shift. Not fun but hardly life changing in the grand scheme. 

This is behind a pay wall but it’s showing current valuations: https://fortune.com/2022/09/20...

West Coast some parts of Texas (Austin) - mountain areas that saw huge covid work remote value increases - all trending down. East coast for most part trending up still or flat - even Florida. 

So many factors influencing valuation. Reason to believe we will see a drop. But overvalued is tough when you factor in low supply (relative), lots of cash out there, and a host of other economic factors. 

Regardless I’d say the first question is what area are you looking at? Nationally is only relative to a degree.


Quote from @Jason V.:
Quote from @Mike Adams:

@Jason V., you're nuts dude.  On a 100k transaction, would you work for $500 bucks before brokerage split AND taxes?

This mindset is based on old systems, ways of thinking.  For example -- tax preparation.  H&R Block was lobbying to keep free tax prep services out of the DIRECT hands of taxpayers.  Now, you can e-file both federal and state tax returns online with multiple places for a flat rate fee of ZERO DOLLARS!

I think the well is gonna dry up for more and more realtors in the long term. Of course there will be creative ways for hustlers to "skim" a little off the top, or even a lot off the top of their braindead clients... but things are moving more toward direct communication. The buyers agent fee is "upfront" with the listing broker, but not the buyer him/herself. The seller's phone number is not upfront with the buyer when listing on the MLS, etc. There will be platforms which remedy this problem of a buyer being able to communicate directly with the seller. Zillow/Trulia are one such example, which doesn't really with, atm, because most buyers agents don't want to negotiate their commission directly with a FSBO seller *and* their own client. I actually had ONE buyer's agent contact me before *and* after losing on MLS, wanting to negotiate toward 6% commission, because he's wasted 4 months with his clients looking for a sub-$100k home just like the one I was selling. Instead of just take his clients there, he spent half an hour chit chatting, texting, etc.... time that he'll never get back.

And for the record, I used to do REAL work (HVAC change outs, installs) for the cheapest price, compared to anyone else in the country.  Still made enough after marketing, sales, contact negotiations, prep, etc. for like $2,000 profit shared between partner and myself.  All for 8 hrs of work, half of it dripping sweat in an attic.  Using real tools, not just words that can be automated or tweaked in an "ad lib contract".

Being my own listing agent, working director with the broker allowed me to see things that most gone seekers never will. How buyers agents want to negotiate upwards on their commission before even considering that they'll show a property to their current... How wholesalers operate (tricky, tricky skimmers, yet I can't deny the hustle!).... How the MLS works.... Laws and whatnot.... It's worth it for everyone to DIY. In this sale, I saved $2,775 by not working with a traditional listing agent... and perhaps more importantly was the more *fluid* communication I was able to have with the buyers agent. 1 agent's ok. But 2 agents in the middle is just too much for fill in the blank H&R Block work, guys. And delays actual negotiations and understanding. Don't threaten me with a good time working for peanuts, because I only do what I love. $$ is really inconsequential in what I do.

EDIT:  A lotta you guys remind me of the waiters, waitresses who complain that they aren't paid a minimum wage... but then a law is passed that forces restaurants to pay them a living wage, they FIGHT AGAINST IT!!  Why?  Because they make way more from the tips than half the jobs out there (at least when comparing after tax dollars, since most of them don't claim all their tips).  Very similar.

Netting 3% on one $1,000,000 home for example is the average yearly income in Mississippi.  If I sold one of those a year, or two $500k homes even.... Then I'd be able to show EVERY client EVERY home they were interested in, and in a tight contact negotiation, I promise you I wouldn't hesitate for long and offering to knock a whole 1% off just to make a deal and move on to the next cause.  Realtors who complain about potentially negotiating they're commission simply can't be worth a flip.  If you weren't KILLING it over the past couple years as a realtor, then I promise you... You're gonna need to find a new job, because with higher interest rates, more foreclosures, less buyers, the future is really gonna put a hurting on you.\

Cyclical down turns have always forced out poor performers in any industry.  I’m not going to comment on the house but more general market comments. 

You talk about the $3k saved but do you not value your own time? I grew up around real estate/title (family business) I've been investing since 25 and even my first home build (forever home until retirement home) we bought and settled same week I paid for a wedding. Why? Because we were in early, 8 months from purchase agreement to settlement - house appraised $75k higher than purchase price. The good buy was worth stress. I say all that to say I could very easily not use an agent, have access to MLS. I use an agent because it saves me my time. THat's true on all purchases. but last one turned out to be bank owned and was complex. The agent saved me a lot of headaches there.

Industry is moving more digital, more open ended but it just means good advice will be more important because ti will move faster. 

Anyway on an easy transaction sure agent might not be worth much. On a complex one? You’ll be happy. Finally, an agent that knows their market and has relationships is worth gold - such as getting a home before it lists on market etc… 

Anyway ultimately I value my time. I have a day job. I don’t want or need a second job. 


Quote from @Nathan Gesner:
Quote from @Ryan Kelly:

@Nathan G. What happens, happens. None of us can control it. We can just try to make smart investments that can weather the storm. Appreciation only investors get hurt the worst.


 True, and I don't spend much time ir energy speculating. However, all investing is a form of speculation and it's important to calculate risk and make sound decisions.

I'm not a data guy, but I do watch the market closely l, always looking for deals. I have bought at least three properties every year since 2016. This year I haven't found anything that makes sense. I looked in Florida, South Carolina, Ohio, Georgia, Virginia, and a few other markets. In my opinion, prices were unhinged from reality and buyers were making emotional decisions. 

When others are greedy, be fearful. I hate sitting on a pile of cash, but my gut tells me to wait this out. 


It’s worth noting emotional or not the amount of purchases in cash or with far higher % of cash down, is up dramatically. So even if people lose value on their homes, they won’t sell (especially with rates so high) which means inventory remains low. It sort of helps keep prices higher or the depreciation lower anyway.
 

Quote from @Steve Vaughan:
Quote from @Michael Wooldridge:




Great first post, Michael. Welcome!

Good point about the coming wealth transfer to millennials. I know a ton of wealthy boomers and don't see that factor pointed out as much. 

Curious as to purchasing $700k assets and being ok with or anticipating a $50k-$100k drop in value?  That was my equity capture minimum when I purchased nicer homes, so the opposite. I had a hard time getting these to cf, so needed good equity going in. 

Are these single family homes? I could see being more ok with this assumption with a cash-flowing plex is all.  Thanks!

So I’m sort of a worse case scenario planner. They are SF homes and a bit more than $700k. I’m expecting short term 10% depreciation value as a worse case. I’m actually buying in a region that is still growing (albeit now slowly). So its possible I won’t see that reduction BUT I’m using 08 as a barometer and it’s hard to see nationally this being worse than 15% (short of massive economic collapse in which case we have other issues).

So maybe it’s fair to say I’m not expecting but planning for that type of loss. I also consider it temporary (25-30 years minimum until retirement for me) and one year of rental income more than covers the drop, 2 years is positive. So I’m comparing it to sitting on sidelines for 2 years losing value to my cash from inflation or earning money not on an asset I know will be up in 25 years years.

Granted economically we have a ton of factors. Inflation, high rates, low supply, strong labor market. So it’s all predictions but I’m not a fan of sitting on this much cash and my current long term rental investments - I just can’t buy fast enough. Meanwhile rent is going up so it’s hard to see more than 15% value lost