Great topic folks, I will chime in with some thoughts from the Baltimore, MD area. I have been thinking about all this for the last 2 years, kind of waiting to see if a shoe will drop. Regardless, it is not as bad in my opinion as it was in 2008 with all the banking and corporate collapses and more. Yes, real estate prices have been high, the stock market is overvalued, and interest rates are on the rise. Who knows what economic or political issues will arise. These must all be taken into consideration for a conservative or possibly different approach in your investing. There are always opportunities, they just seem to change I believe. One strategy may just be to take some money off the table.
I have been rehabbing and hard money lending the past 9-10 years on my own pretty strongly. The best opportunities were surely after the crash in 2008-09 for a few years. There has still be opportunities since then. I have seen the past 1-2 years, a lot of inexperienced investors entering the market, and overpaying for properties. Whether it be on MLS, auction, or wholesale, I won't pay what they will, so it has been harder to find properties, but they are still out there. You just have to look harder and differently. It is also about relationships.
The market today has obviously changed. Buy prices higher, sales prices high, though starting to see some come down. Days on market is definitely going up, though it depends on the area. In parts of Baltimore City, the higher end and more competitive areas, like Canton, Fells, Point, Federal HIll, Locust Point, are getting hit pretty hard it looks like. In the county, depending on where you are, housing are still selling fairly quickly provided you have a good product at a fair price.
The first time home buyers market $250k or less, used to be a great market, and this might be changing. I am going a little higher end in good county areas with good schools. I have also started doing new construction under $500k and those are typically under contract before they are completed. I think if you are savvy, patient, conservative, there is still opportunity in my opinion.
I also own rentals and will be looking for more of them and have not had much trouble getting things rented in better areas, in the $100-150k range for rowhomes, and no board ups. I do not do lower end housing.
On the lending side, the first 6 month had been very very busy. The past 2 months, much slower. There are more novice investors in the local market now though, the past few years, some have been put out of the market due to mistakes on lending, and just not having the experience. There has also been some larger regional or national companies that have entered the local market offering enticing rates. Most of them cannot offer the local knowledge and insight, and cannot move as quickly as us local hard money lenders. Even though we might be more expense, we surely can better help our local clientele and can respond much faster to their needs. I will starting a topic shortly on a recent loan experience and how hard money lenders can be a new investors best friend.
Open to thoughts.
Regards,
Michael Krupp