It sounds like you've gotten some solid direction above, but a few flags stood out to me in the above discussions and I wanted to point them out to help make your decision.
- You mentioned this sale is tax free 121 exclusion, which is great, and seems like a solid start to your goal.
- The townhouse you're moving into is currently a rental, but you plan to live there two years for the 121 exclusion. Just a heads up this will not be tax free, it will be a pro-rated exclusion. You have to pay depreciation recapture and gains on the pro-rated time it was a rental.
-Depending on your gain above, you could get a partial 121 exclusion and a 1031 on the townhouse. Maybe it isn't worth it, but you should consider the numbers and decide...that could push you towards purchasing another rental.
- You mentioned paying down/off a rental and needing to consider the tax implication. I'd suggest that there is essentially no tax implication for this as compared to your alternatives. If you pay down $100K in loan saving you $1K in monthly costs against rental income, or you invest that $100K in something that generates $1K in net income the result is similar. In both you are now paying taxes on an additional $1K/mo.
-The mention of syndication being less risky than HML...I'd suggest it is more risk, possibly much much more since you don't know whether you are good or bad at vetting the operator right now. With HML at least you in theory can vet the property and keep a low LTV to ensure you can be made whole. With syndications many operators are using finance magic to juice returns, but that can result in full wipeout on the investors. Definitely do a search here for some recent stories on capital calls and risks with syndications...even on some that have been operating many years...